403
FXUS64 KFWD 220333
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1033 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Overnight through Saturday night/

Isolated showers that formed on the southern periphery of a ridge
aloft have dissipated with the loss of surface heating. Diurnally
driven Cu have also dissipated, leaving a mostly clear sky across
the region. After a seasonably hot and humid day with highs in
the lower and middle 90s, temperatures will cool steadily
overnight, reaching the lower and middle 70s by sunrise Saturday.

Temperatures will be slightly warmer on Saturday (highs generally in
the middle 90s) with building heights and plenty of sun. However,
moisture will remain below 700 mb, allowing daytime Cu to develop
once again. It is not out of the realm of possibility that a few
sprinkles could reach the ground across a few of our Central Texas
counties Saturday afternoon, but subsidence should be too strong
for these brief showers to produce measurable rainfall.

Daytime Cu will dissipate Saturday evening and southerly winds
will become light, allowing a steady cool down. Overnight lows
will be mainly in the lower and middle 70s, but a few spots
across the urban heat island of the metroplex may not fall below
78 degrees.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 150 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024/
/Sunday and Beyond/

The main story of the long-term forecast is the arrival of this
year`s first long duration period of impactful heat early next
week.

A stout 597dam upper ridge currently centered over the Tennessee
River Valley will shift westward over the next several days. The
ridge axis will shift overhead North and Central Texas early next
week before settling over the Desert Southwest by Wednesday. This
pattern will result in the hottest temperatures of the year thus
far with widespread afternoon highs in the mid-to upper 90s
expected Sunday and beyond into the foreseeable future through at
least the end of the next work week. The most likely area for
temperatures to exceed the century mark will start across our Big
Country counties generally along/west of Highway 281. The areal
coverage of triple-digit temperature readings may expand as we get
further into the week with Monday or Tuesday potentially being
DFW`s first 100-degree day of the year (20-30% chance). If we get
a 100-degree reading at DFW Airport sometime this week, that will
place this year`s first 100-degree day about a week before the
average date of July 1st.

Hot temperatures will continue through the week with several
locations across North and Central Texas reaching triple-digits on
a daily basis through the end of next week. Persistent south-
southeasterly flow beneath the upper ridge will keep low-level
moisture and high humidity sprawled across the region. Thus,
expect afternoon heat index values to peak in the 105-110 degree
range across much of our forecast area. A return to daily heat
headlines is likely by Monday or Tuesday of next week. Warm
overnight lows in the upper 70s to low 80s will also increase the
likelihood of heat stress. Make sure to take the proper heat
safety precautions and check up on your friends and family members
who may be more vulnerable to heat-related illnesses!

As the ridge becomes centered over the Desert Southwest by
Wednesday, NNW flow aloft will take shape over our region
increasing the potential for thunderstorm complexes to propagate
south out of OK/KS into North Texas. With these complexes being so
dependent on smaller, mesoscale processes, we will limit rain
chances to 20-30% for the Wednesday-Thursday time frame at this
moment.

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

Strong high pressure aloft will result in unrestricted flying
conditions across North and Central Texas through Saturday with a
mostly clear sky at night and scattered daytime Cu.

A south to southeast wind will prevail through Saturday night at
sustained speeds generally less than 12 knots

79

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    77  96  78  99  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                74  93  74  95  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               72  94  75  98  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              74  96  75  99  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            75  96  76  99  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              77  96  78  99  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             74  94  74  97  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           75  95  76  95  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              72  94  72  95  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       72  94  73  97  76 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$