Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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004 FXUS64 KFWD 232321 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 621 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Tonight and Monday/ Heat will remain the dominant weather word Monday, with very few changes expected relative to today. The sprawling upper level ridge of high pressure draped over Texas and New Mexico will linger over the region through Monday, though it does appear the center of this feature may retrograde very slightly, placing North Texas on its northwest flank. All things being equal, this should result in no noticeable increases in daytime temperatures Monday, though highs in the upper 90s to near 100 will still be the rule areawide. The Heat Advisory issued for roughly the eastern half of the forecast area for Monday through Tuesday remains in effect. A brief cessation of wind this afternoon temporarily reduced near surface mixing and facilitated a short-lived temperature rise to 100 degrees at DFW. This was the first 100 degree day at DFW so far this year, and it occurred about a week before the climatological average first occurrence. More out of persistence than anything else, went ahead and maintained 100 at DFW in this evening`s updated grids, but with slightly lower forecast thicknesses, wouldn`t be surprised if this key reporting site tops out just a degree or two shy of the century mark tomorrow. Rest assured, there will be plenty of future opportunities for us to see 100+ readings this summer. No other meaningful changes made to the near term forecast. Bradshaw && .LONG TERM... /Issued 154 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024/ /Monday Night through Sunday/ A stout mid level ridge will remain in place across the Southern Plains Monday night through much of the week resulting in increasing heat and humidity. The center of the ridge axis will temporarily shift across West Texas on Tuesday in response to deepening troughing across the eastern CONUS. While this won`t have much impact on our temperatures, it may briefly allow increasing northerly flow aloft to send a remnant Plains storm complex southward toward the Red River late Tuesday and again Wednesday. None of the major model guidance shows any noteworthy precipitation making it into North Texas, but perhaps some increased cloud cover can provide some temporary relief throughout the day. Otherwise, our ridge will expand back to the east late Wednesday through the remainder of the week and into next weekend. This will support continued hot temperatures with highs near 100 each afternoon. Light synoptic scale flow will likely result in less afternoon mixing Wednesday through Friday and should help keep dewpoints in the lower 70s. This will result in heat indices above 105 each afternoon and a likely continuation of heat headlines through the week. Dunn && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00z TAFs/ VFR conditions will persist across all of North and Central Texas through 06z Tuesday, as a large ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the region. A weak surface trough in eastern New Mexico, coupled with a broad high pressure region across the Lower Mississippi Valley will facilitate a modest pressure gradient across North Texas tonight and Monday. Surface winds will remain generally southerly in direction, at speeds averaging 7 to 10 knots. Bradshaw && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 79 99 80 99 81 / 0 0 0 0 5 Waco 76 96 77 97 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 77 97 78 97 78 / 5 5 0 5 10 Denton 76 99 78 100 79 / 5 0 0 0 5 McKinney 77 99 78 99 79 / 5 5 0 0 5 Dallas 79 99 80 100 81 / 0 0 0 0 5 Terrell 76 97 77 97 77 / 0 0 0 0 5 Corsicana 77 98 78 97 79 / 0 0 0 0 5 Temple 74 96 75 97 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 74 98 78 99 79 / 0 0 0 0 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ092>095-103>107-118>123-133>135-145>148-158>162-174-175. && $$