691
FXUS64 KFWD 220759
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
259 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1033 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024/
/Overnight through Saturday night/

Isolated showers that formed on the southern periphery of a ridge
aloft have dissipated with the loss of surface heating. Diurnally
driven Cu have also dissipated, leaving a mostly clear sky across
the region. After a seasonably hot and humid day with highs in
the lower and middle 90s, temperatures will cool steadily
overnight, reaching the lower and middle 70s by sunrise Saturday.

Temperatures will be slightly warmer on Saturday (highs generally in
the middle 90s) with building heights and plenty of sun. However,
moisture will remain below 700 mb, allowing daytime Cu to develop
once again. It is not out of the realm of possibility that a few
sprinkles could reach the ground across a few of our Central Texas
counties Saturday afternoon, but subsidence should be too strong
for these brief showers to produce measurable rainfall.

Daytime Cu will dissipate Saturday evening and southerly winds
will become light, allowing a steady cool down. Overnight lows
will be mainly in the lower and middle 70s, but a few spots
across the urban heat island of the metroplex may not fall below
78 degrees.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Sunday Onward/

The main story heading into the upcoming workweek will be the
onset of oppressive summer heat. The upper ridge axis will become
centered directly overhead by the end of this weekend, and daily
high temperatures will steadily trend warmer into the upper 90s
while triple-digit readings begin to become more common. Mixing
out of dewpoints into the 60s early in the week will hold heat
index values largely in the 100-108 degree range, but higher
dewpoints in the low to mid 70s arriving towards the midweek
period could push heat index values over 110 at times. Prolonged
heat headlines appear likely through the extended forecast
period.

The ridge will become anchored across the Desert Southwest by
Wednesday, placing much of the Southern and Central Plains within
northerly flow aloft. This pattern can allow weak fronts to push
farther southward than normal by summertime standards, and
resultant convection can sometimes become a factor for North Texas
as steering flow sends convection from these boundaries southward
through the Plains. As a result, at least some low thunderstorm
chances may exist on Wednesday or Thursday. Unless next week`s
heat wave is interrupted by such convection or at least some
remnant cloud cover, oppressive heat and humidity will likely
continue into the late week period.

-Stalley

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1033 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024/
/06Z TAFs/

Strong high pressure aloft will result in unrestricted flying
conditions across North and Central Texas through Saturday with a
mostly clear sky at night and scattered daytime Cu.

A south to southeast wind will prevail through Saturday night at
sustained speeds generally less than 12 knots

79

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    78  98  79  99  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                74  95  76  97  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               75  97  75  97  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              75  99  76 100  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            76  98  77  99  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              78  99  78 100  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             74  96  75  97  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           75  97  78  97  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              72  95  75  97  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       73  98  75  99  79 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$