738
FXUS64 KFWD 281053
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
553 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
An Excessive Heat Warning and a Heat Advisory have been issued
ahead of this afternoon`s expected hot temperatures. Temperatures
will be in the upper 90s to around 104 with heat index values
maxing out closer to 112.

Aside from a few minor temperature updates, the rest of the
forecast remains unchanged. Wind speeds this afternoon will pick
up with a few gusts up to 20 mph. I wish I could say this will add
some relief...instead, it will most likely feel like you`re in
front of a blow dryer. Remember to take the necessary precautions
to avoid heat-related illnesses. Drink plenty of water, wear
light-colored clothing and take frequent breaks if you`re
outdoors.


Hernandez

Previous Discussion:
/Through Saturday/

Dangerously hot conditions are expected across North and Central
Texas both this afternoon and once again tomorrow afternoon. As
the high pressure center becomes established atop our region,
temperatures are expected to be 3-5 degrees warmer compared to
yesterday afternoon. The slightly warmer temperatures, coupled
with moderate humidity once again this afternoon, will make for
yet another uncomfortable afternoon outdoors. Heat index values
will range from around 105 to 112.

The early morning guidance has increased the probability to ~70%
that some areas along and North of I-20 will reach heat index
values of at least 110 degrees. An Excessive Heat Warning is
likely to be issued in the coming hours to account for this trend.
Those across the region, but especially in North Texas, should
plan accordingly to prevent any heat related illnesses. This
includes wearing light-colored clothing, drinking plenty of water
and staying indoors as much as possible.

Tonight, temperatures will continue to be above average as
widespread mid to upper 70s are expected. The immediate
Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex is likely to remain in the lower 80s
tonight.

Tomorrow, another hot day is in store with widespread triple
digits once again. The dangerously hot heat index values will once
again develop with the Excessive Heat Warning likely extended
through Saturday evening.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 250 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024/
/Saturday Night Through Next Week/

The ongoing summer heat will be the main headline in the extended
period, with rain chances remaining near zero through next week.
The only exception to this will be on Sunday as showers and storms
develop near a weak front in Oklahoma. Some of this activity may
skirt areas near the Red River, but this will largely depend on
how far south the front ends up stalling. Otherwise, rain-free
weather is expected, with daily temperatures ranging from the mid
90s to near 104 degrees. Warm and muggy mornings in the mid 70s
to low 80s will continue. Fortunately, slightly lower humidity
should keep heat index values a bit lower than we`re currently
seeing. However, we`ll still meet Heat Advisory criteria across
most of the area each day, so a daily extension of the ongoing
advisory can be expected for the next week.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

VFR conditions continue across North and Central Texas with some
mid and upper level clouds in place. Southeasterly winds are
ongoing at this time, but those will become southerly by late this
afternoon. Winds are expected to gradually increase through the
late morning and early afternoon hours, likely topping out closer
to 15-17 knots.

Tonight, low-level clouds are expected to return mainly across
Central Texas, leading to MVFR restrictions at KACT. A
south/southwesterly trajectory of the low clouds will likely keep
the bulk of the impacts to the east of the North Texas TAF sites.
If the low-level flow becomes a bit more backed, stratus may be
introduced within the DFW Metroplex in subsequent TAF issuances.

Hernandez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth   100  81  99  81  99 /   0   0   0   0  10
Waco                99  79  98  77  96 /   0   0   0   0   5
Paris               95  78  95  78  94 /   0   0   0   5  30
Denton             101  80 101  79  99 /   0   0   0   5  10
McKinney            99  80  98  79  97 /   0   0   0   5  10
Dallas             101  80  99  81  99 /   0   0   0   0  10
Terrell             97  78  97  78  96 /   5   0   0   0  10
Corsicana           99  80  98  78  97 /   0   0   5   0   5
Temple              99  79  98  77  97 /   0   0   0   0   5
Mineral Wells      101  78 100  77  98 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening
for TXZ091>094-102>105-117>121-131>134.

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ095-100-101-106-
107-115-116-122-123-129-130-135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

$$