381
FXUS65 KGGW 062000
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
200 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Far northeast Montana (primarily Sheridan County) has high
  chance for at gusts in excess of 40 mph today.

- A cold front passage on Friday morning will increase PoPs(40%)
  immediately along the International Border, with a wetting rain
  accumulation through Friday night(at least a tenth of an inch)
  remaining low (<10%).

- A general warming trend to above-normal temperatures through the
  remainder of the forecast period.


WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
At the surface, a tight northwest-to-southeast pressure gradient
will bring one more day of breezy conditions for areas in far
northeast Montana. Friday, a quick-moving cold front will move
through the region, bringing a low chance for precipitation along
the International Border and keep temperatures near to slightly
above-normal.

Monday onward: Northeast Montana will be on the northern fringes
of upper-level ridge influence as models come back into alignment
for the region. This results in a general warming trend to above
normal high temperatures through the end of the upcoming week.
Precipitation- wise, it`ll be generally on the drier side, with
low PoPs (20% and under) on Tuesday. Enriquez/GAH


FORECAST CONFIDENCE and DEVIATIONS:
NBM ensembles are having massive difficulty resolving a cold pool
that sets over the central Canadian Plains Friday night. A ridge
ahead of it over southern Hudson Bay is forcing the cold pool to
backslide south and west into Montana Saturday where it bumps up
against the newly developing ridge over the western half of the
CONUS. However, the difference in the position of that pool`s
backslide among ensemble members ranges from the Dakotas to
central Saskatchewan this weekend. This in turn is having a large
knock on affect on temperature ranges from Saturday night into
Sunday night along with any frontal features associated with it.
The range for high or low temps in the forecast is nearly a 15
degree spread, leading to very low confidence in the forecast at
these time periods. Model precip confidence is also shot during
this time as well with everything banking on the position of that
narrow cold pool, the frontal zones surrounding it, and whether
it even affects northeast Montana through the weekend as the new
ridge to the southwest fights back. GAH


&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATE: 1915Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR

DISCUSSION: Mostly clear skies through tonight. Early Friday
morning, a cold front will bring a cloud deck along the
International Border with ceilings between 5,000 and 10,000 ft
and a few isolated to scattered showers. Skies begin to clear
by Friday afternoon.

WIND: Northwest at 10 to 20 kts gust 30 kts this afternoon.
Calming to light and variable tonight. Turning north Friday
morning and increasing to 10 to 20 kts late Friday morning. Then
backing to northwest in the evening.

-Enriquez/GAH


&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.


&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow