Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
887 FXUS65 KGGW 052007 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 207 PM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Gusty west to northwest winds through this evening - Dry and warmer weather through the end of the week WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A departing low pressure system moving across central Saskatchewan and a strong jet stream pushing across the northern Rockies will sustain strong winds through today. The focus of strongest winds by this afternoon will shift from the Little Rockies toward the far northeast corner of Montana, where sustained winds and gusts will near High Wind Warning criteria of 40 and 58 mph, respectively. Ensembles show a broad ridging pattern providing steady or gradually warming temperatures over the next week, along with dry conditions through at least Sunday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE and DEVIATIONS: AFTERNOON: Confidence in periods between Thursday night and Saturday night has decreased quite a bit in the last 24 hours. Ensembles are having trouble resolving a cold push down the Canadian Plains and where it moves to before the high pressure ridge to the west moves into Montana and resettles the forecast. Some runs take the southern extent of the cold pool to the central US Plains while others are sending it east into upper Midwest and lower Ontario. This will increase the range of deviations in temperature solutions for daytime highs and overnight lows to be wider than normal during this time, which in turns lower the confidence in the forecast. GAH MORNING: Winds today were blended with the NBM 90th percentile to better capture their strength based on latest observations and trends. This gives medium to high (60-80%) confidence for winds staying just below High Wind Warning criteria outside of SW Phillips, but will be most marginal over Sheridan county this afternoon. For Thursday and beyond, have opted to stay close to the baseline reflecting high confidence for warmer and drier conditions with the associated ridge. -Zanker && .AVIATION... VFR conditions. Look for west winds of 25 to 30 kts, gusting to 40 kts through this afternoon. && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Lake Wind Advisory until 10 PM MDT this evening for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone- Petroleum. High Wind Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Sheridan. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow