Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
457 FXUS65 KGGW 192026 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 226 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - A slow warm up is expected through Sunday when some 90s for highs likely appear. - Shower and thunderstorm chances increase each day through Friday, when stronger storms and a more widespread wetting rain is expected. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: After a mostly dry day today, zonal flow along the northern CONUS will continue to allow weak shortwaves to move through the area through Saturday morning. This will produce hit-and-miss showers and thunderstorms during this time. Most common area forecast totals range from a quarter to half inch for areas hit during this group of periods, but primarily Friday afternoon and evening. Mainly general thunder is expected with any storms as they will be embedded in rain showers, but a few stronger wind gusts over 40 mph can be mixed down to the surface with this activity. Afterward, ridging will favor seasonably warm and drier conditions by early next week. FORECAST CONFIDENCE and DEVIATIONS: Currently, there are no major signatures for severe weather Thursday afternoon to Saturday morning in the synoptic scale for the ensembles. However, this is just beyond the range of CAMs, so that could change. There is high confidence (50-80%) in general thunder with very minimal chances (10%) for any severe weather over this period. A deviation from the NBM was made through Thursday to expand coverage of isolated thunderstorm chances, and increase winds/gusts to near the 90th percentile based on recent model bias and climatology. -Zanker/GAH && .AVIATION... LAST UPDATE: 2030Z FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR. DISCUSSION: Expect SCT to FEW mid to high clouds through the end of the cycle. There is a low (20%) chance for an isolated thunderstorm caused by daytime instability to briefly impact the TAF sites both this evening and Thursday afternoon. SFC WIND: Backing E to SE and becoming light late this evening through Thursday morning. Then, increasing to 10-15 kts out of the SE Thursday afternoon. Expect gusty and erratic winds near any thunderstorms. EQUIPMENT: We will continue to add "AMD NOT SKED" to the KSDY TAF till its METAR is available again online. && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow