804
FXUS65 KGGW 120354
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
954 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

1) Warmer than average temperatures look to continue over the next
few days, especially Friday and Saturday.

2) Gusty west winds are expected on Wednesday.

3) Increasing chances for thunderstorms are favored by Friday into
the weekend.


WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Gusty west winds are expected to develop on Wednesday behind the
passage of a cold front. The NBM probability of wind gusts
exceeding 30 mph ranges between 50 and 80 percent across NE
Montana from Wednesday morning into the late afternoon before
gradually decreasing. Thus, have issued a Lake Wind Advisory for
Fort Peck Lake.

Zonal flow is expected over the region in the next few days before
500mb heights carve out ridging Friday and Saturday. This will
lead to an overall warm weather pattern with dry weather over the
next couple of days. By late Friday and into the weekend
unsettled conditions are expected with scattered showers and
thunderstorms increasing in probability as the ridge axis slides
east.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE and DEVIATIONS:

Given the post-frontal environment, the forecast was trended above
the NBM for winds on Wednesday with confidence remaining high on a
windy day across the region. Fire weather concerns will also be
on the increase, with the gusty winds and dropping humidity behind
the front. Fuel conditions and low to moderate fire danger will
keep the fire concerns in check for the most part.


&&

.AVIATION...
LAST UPDATED: 0355Z

FLIGHT CAT:  VFR

DISCUSSION: Skies are clear to partly cloudy tonight. There is an
outside chance for a thunderstorm at KGDV from 07 to 12Z, but this
value is currently too low to put in the TAFs even as a Prob30.
Clear to partly cloudy skies are then expected through Wednesday
and into the evening.

LLWS: Low level wind shear may be an issue at times now through
12Z this morning.

WIND: SW and light tonight. Veering to the West around sunrise and
increasing to 20 to 25 kts through Wednesday afternoon. Then
calming to less than 10 kts after sundown.

EQUIPMENT: The METAR for KSDY is missing, thus AMD NOT SKED.

GAH


&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for Central
and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-
McCone-Petroleum.


&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow