105
FXUS63 KGID 220557
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1257 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Latest forecast models continue to come in with even lower
  rainfall amounts tonight into Sunday across our area as main
  appreciable precipitation belt has now shifted southeast of
  even our north central Kansas counties. Tri-Cities mean total
  QPF now only 0.10 - 0.25".

- Best bet at possibly picking up 0.50" or better rainfall
  through Sunday is now across our southern tier of counties
  (Rooks, Osborne, Mitchell). Can`t rule out several half inch
  rainfall reports further north into southern Nebraska, but
  current odds are less than 50/50.

- Any precipitation that we do see should be on its way out of
  the area by Sunday evening. Most areas are then expecting dry
  conditions Monday through Saturday.

- Temperature-wise: lovers of early-fall weather (highs mainly
  70s/lows mainly 40s-50s) should really enjoy next week!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Tonight through Sunday...

This storm system is turning into a real disappointment for many
of us that need rain. What once was a rather impressive upper
low that entered California and tracked across the desert
southwest is clearly now projected to weaken as it makes its
turn towards the northeast and our central plains region that we
call home. Most forecast models now open the upper wave up as it
loses strength as well as track the remains of this system
further south with each new forecast model run. Consequently,
the storm system that 3-4 days ago most models and ensemble
members were hailing as an appreciable rain maker for the Tri-
Cities is now down to an ensemble average of 0.10 - 0.25". It`s
been a gradual reduction in the strength of this system for the
past few days and I know it will disappoint many. Our far
southern zones across north central Kansas could still salvage
over 0.50", but the higher amounts may be somewhat scattered.

The stronger potentially severe thunderstorms this evening
should primarily remain east and southeast of our forecast area
where the SPC marginal risk remains in place. Most of any
precipitation on Sunday will be general rain showers, but can
not rule out a few isolated claps of thunder, nothing severe
expected.

The bigger story may be the much cooler temperatures with highs
in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Raised the highs a bit for Sunday
following the NBM due to expectation of less overall rainfall.


Next Week...

Our weekend upper wave basically washes out as it tracks east
towards the Mississippi Valley. A second short wave trough will
slide southeast out of Canada and through the northern plains.
Forecast models have been struggling on what to do with this
system and seem to now be leaning towards cutting it off as an
upper low to our south or southeast. This system doesn`t really
bring much moisture with it hence our mainly dry forecast next
week as it slips on by. At this time the forecast is for some
moisture to start working back north next week and getting
wrapped into this next system as it meanders off to our south
southeast, but favoring southeastern Kansas and Missouri.
Therefore, our forecast remains mainly dry and mild (70s) next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1257 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- Ceiling/visibility/precipitation:
High confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility throughout, with the
only possible "catch" being the possibility of brief MVFR
visibility IF a steadier rain shower happens to pass through.
Speaking of which, the area will be prone to at least scattered
(mainly light) showers through Sunday afternoon, so have opted
to "blanket" this time frame with a vicinity shower (VCSH)
mention (the probability of thunder is far too low to include).
As for ceiling, the majority of the period will likely feature a
mid-level VFR ceiling mainly in the 7-10K ft. range, with some
scattering/clearing possible late in the period Sunday evening.

- Winds:
The majority of the period will feature a fairly consistent
northerly direction, before a variable direction/light speed
regime sets in Sunday evening. The strongest speeds will focus
between now and 21Z, with sustained 10-15KT/gusts 15-20KT
common.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wesely
AVIATION...Pfannkuch