Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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167 FXUS63 KGID 210542 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1242 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Small chances (20 percent) of thunderstorms remain in the forecast late this afternoon/evening across far western/northern portions of the forecast area. Better chances for severe weather look to focus off to our north, but a few stronger storms are not out of the question. - Another chance for storms returns to mainly northern portions of the forecast area Friday evening/night...with 30-50 percent chances focused along/north of Highway 92. There will be the potential for a few to be strong to marginally severe. - Heat is expected to ramp late this weekend into early next week. Monday currently the overall-hottest day of the 7-day forecast, with widespread heat index values in the 100-105 degree range possible. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 404 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Currently on into tonight... Been a dry but increasingly breezy day today across the forecast, with a nice rebound in temperatures from the 60s/70s recorded on Wednesday. Upper air and satellite data show continued south- southwesterly flow in place across the area, set up between a large area of high pressure settled over portions of the Midwest and Mid- East Coast regions, with troughing remaining in place over the West Coast. At the surface, the day started off with plenty of low level stratus in place, along with patchy fog and southeasterly winds around 10 MPH...as we sat north of the main frontal boundary. Through the day, as surface low pressure has deepened over eastern portions of the WY/CO border, this warm front has pushed north, ushering in diminishing lower level clouds, stronger southerly winds, and warmer temperatures. Gusts here at mid-afternoon are in the mainly in the 20-30 MPH range. Those southerly winds have brought in more moisture, with dewpoints climbing into the upper 60s to low 70s...and temperatures this afternoon so far in most of the forecast area have reached the mid 80s to low 90s...feeling much more like summer for the start of astronomical summer/Summer Solstice. For the rest of this afternoon and mainly into this evening, with that surface frontal boundary still hanging around northern portions of the forecast area...can`t totally rule out some isolated showers/thunderstorms, so kept a 20 percent change going in the forecast (mainly along/north of an Ord-York line). Will also see how activity off to our west evolves, a few models suggest some of that could drift far enough east to clip our far west (roughly along an Ord-Elwood line)...so do have some 20 percent chances remaining for that potential. Plenty of instability in the area should any storms develop this afternoon/early evening, but lapse rates/deeper layer shear values are on the lower side...so storms may struggle. Best chances for precip look to be pre-midnight (then shift off to our north), and have the rest of the overnight hours tonight dry. Overnight lows expected to bottom out in the mid 60s-low 70s. Friday and Saturday.... This time frame sees the start of a transition in upper level flow across the area, and overall there hasn`t been any significant changes in models. During the day on Friday, models show upper level low remaining southwesterly, though the main area of high pressure continues to sink SSW, closer to the Gulf Coast region by evening. Into Saturday/Saturday night, thanks at least part to an area of low pressure sliding east across central Canada, this upper high becomes more elongated/stretched across the southern CONUS, allowing for zonal flow across the forecast area. With the daytime hours currently forecast to be dry, the main chance for any precipitation looks to come Friday evening/Friday night, the the arrival of the trough axis extending south from the parent low in Canada. Similar to today, expecting gusty southerly winds to develop during the day as we sit south of the main frontal boundary. Activity expected to develop along that boundary during the afternoon hours, pushing east through the evening/overnight hours. At this point the better chances are across the northern half of the forecast area (roughly HWY 6 and north), with more question in the southward extent mainly due to warmer mid-level temps/capping potential...some models suggest activity would again be focused closer to/north of HWY 92...so there are some uncertainties there to iron out. Where storms do develop, potential for a few to be strong to marginally severe isn`t totally out of the question. Into the day on Saturday, for most areas the forecast is dry. Some lingering 20 percent chances remain across eastern portions of the area, mainly tied to the frontal boundary that continues making its way south through the area. Highs for Friday are forecast to reach the low 90s, but at least those southerly winds will be gusty to help keep the misery level down a touch from what it could be if winds were calm. Little more uncertainty in temperatures for Saturday, as is the case when there is a daytime frontal passage. Timing of that boundary is a big driver...a slower push will allow for more areas to be warmer than expected. Current forecast has mid 80s in the NNW, upper 80s in the Tri-Cities, low-mid 90s in the SSE. Areas ahead of that front could have heat index values near 100 degrees. Sunday on into mid-week... By Sunday morning, models show upper level flow has turned more northwesterly, remaining that way at least into Monday, as that area of high pressure/ridging has moved into the Desert SW/Rockies region. The forecast for Sunday and Monday is currently dry, but confidence in it staying that way isn`t overly high..especially during the evening/overnight hours across western portions of the forecast area. Through ridging has set up to our west, it isn`t strong enough to solidly push any embedded shortwave disturbances and accompanying precipitation chances far enough north for them to not be a concern. That is the case on into Tuesday/Wednesday, but the NBM did have scattered preciptiation chances in the forecast. As far as temperatures go, the overall hottest day of the forecast continues to be Monday, not that Sunday and Tuesday are notably better. Forecast highs for Tuesday are in the mid 90s in the north to just over 100 in the south...with widespread heat index values in the 100-105 degree range currently forecast. Sunday and Tuesday are closer to around 90 in the north to around 100 in the south. Wednesday is currently forecast to reach the mid 80s to low 90s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1235 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: South winds are expected to persist throughout the TAF valid period with increasing winds later this morning. Southerly wind gusts by late morning into early afternoon could reach up to around 30 mph at times. VFR ceilings are expected to continue with showers and thunderstorms likely remaining northwest of our TAF sites this morning. Slight chances for thunderstorms will return to the forecast this evening and may need to be added to the TAF with future updates. At this time, the better chances for showers and thunderstorms through the TAF period will be north of our TAF sites. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADP AVIATION...Wesely