474
FXUS63 KGID 241800
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
100 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for the entire area today with
  heat index values around 105 degrees. A Heat Advisory has
  been issued for Tuesday for southeastern portions of the area.


- A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible (15-30%)
  this evening across the area. Additional thunderstorm chances
  (15-30%) on Tuesday as a cold front moves through the area.

- Scattered thunderstorm chances continue Wednesday night
  (30-50%) through the weekend (15-30%) with highs in the 80s
  and 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 442 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Today...

Today will likely be the warmest day of the week as highs climb into
the upper 90s to low 100s. Heat index values will top out around 105
degrees for most locations. A Heat Advisory is in effect from 1pm to
8pm today.

A shortwave trough will help with an associated surface front will
move into the area during the late afternoon-evening hours today
bringing with it chances for thunderstorms (15-30%). While CAMs
disagree on how widespread thunderstorms will be, isolated to
scattered thunderstorm development is possible across the area this
evening. Instability will be sufficient for severe thunderstorm
development (SBCAPE values of 1500-3000 J/Kg), however weak shear
(20-25kts) will help to prevent storms from becoming more organized.
Storms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts, however
marginally severe hail is possible in the strongest storms.

Tuesday...

Tuesday will be another warm day across the area. A cold front
moving through the area will lead to "cooler" temperatures. Highs
will be in the 90s across south central Nebraska, and around
100 degrees in north central Kansas where the cold front is
slower to reach. Heat index values will be in the mid to upper
90s across most of the area, with southeastern portions of the
area seeing heat index values over 100 degrees. A heat advisory
has been issued for southeastern portions of the area where heat
index values approaching 105 degrees are most likely.

Thunderstorms are possible (15-30%) across southeastern portions of
the area during the late afternoon-early overnight hours as the cold
front moves through. Similar to today`s severe weather concerns,
weak shear will help to prevent more significant/organized severe
weather concerns.


Wednesday and Thursday...

Wednesday will be cooler, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s. Dry
weather is expected during the daytime hours on Wednesday.
Thunderstorms developing off the western High Plains will move into
the area Wednesday night, bring more widespread chances
(30-50%) for precipitation to the area. Thunderstorm chances
continue through the day on Thursday( 25-55%), with highs in the
80s to low 90s once again.

Friday Onwards...

An approaching trough over the Rockies will bring additional
chances (25-50%) for rain to the area on Friday that continue
through the weekend (15-30%). Thunderstorms are possible mainly
during the afternoon-overnight hours. Highs on Friday will climb
into the 90s ahead of a cold frontal passage. Temperatures this
weekend look to be cooler behind this cold frontal passage,
with highs in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period with
generally southwesterly winds to start the period, eventually
becoming northeasterly during the late morning hours Tuesday
behind a weak cold front. Expect a weak disturbance to the west
this afternoon to bring the possibility for a few sprinkles or
light showers, although probs are low and did not include a
mention in the TAFS. Some TSRAs are expected to develop near the
cold front late this afternoon and evening, but again, probs
were low enough to not include as VCTS or TSRAs in the TAFs.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for NEZ086-087.
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.
     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Rossi