779
FXUS63 KGID 161102
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
602 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered storms continue through mid afternoon. Severe
  weather is unlikely, but some small hail and gusty winds are
  possible in the strongest storms.

- Additional storms could return from the southwest tonight into
  Tuesday morning. Then dry/windy through the rest of the daytime
  on Tuesday.

- Weakening line of storms expected to move through the area
  Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

- Mostly dry the rest of Wednesday and Thursday. Next good
  chance for rain and thunderstorms is Friday night through
  Saturday.

- Trending cooler next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 455 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Thunderstorms have over-achieved early this morning, and this is
not being handled well by any near-term model guidance. The
general expectation that scattered showers and storms will
continue to percolate through the morning and into the
afternoon. Highest coverage is expected to gradually shift from
southwest to northeast along with the upper level shortwave and
a remnant MCV. Limited shear should prevent any organized
severe threat, but CAMs show enough instability (1000-2000j/kg
MUCAPE) for a few stronger updrafts capable of producing hail
and perhaps some localized strong winds.

This evening into tonight, another round of showers and storms
could approach from the southwest. Confidence is low in exactly
how things will play out given the CAMs poor performance
tonight. Any activity that does develop is expected to
dissipate and/or move out of the area by mid morning on
Tuesday.

The bulk of the day on Tuesday should remain dry as a deep upper
trough approaches from the west. Ahead of this system, south-
southeasterly winds are expected to gust to the 30-40 MPH range
(possibly higher in the west). Models show convection developing
well to our west Tuesday afternoon, with it eventually reaching
the local forecast area late Tuesday evening into the overnight.
As such, the main severe risk also remains to our west, and
storms should exhibit a weakening trend as they move through
central Nebraska/Kansas. This could be the first beneficial rain
of September for some areas, and the 07Z NBM shows a 20-40%
chance for 0.50" or more through midday Wednesday.

On Wednesday and Thursday, we will be between systems, and the
latest forecast has trended a bit drier. Better chances for
rain/storms then return as another deep trough move in late
Friday through Saturday. This period appears even move favorable
for beneficial rain. The 07Z highlights a 40-60% chance for an
additional 0.50" 7pm Friday through 7pm Saturday.

Forecast specifics become more uncertain as we head into next
week, but global ensembles continue to favor a cooler pattern.
High temperatures are more likely to be in the upper 60s and 70s
than the mid to upper 80s that we have been seeing lately.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 546 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Short term models do not have a good handle on this mornings
convection, so confidence isn`t the highest with what will
happen this morning.The HRRR is the closest to what is
currently on Radar and will use that as a guide for the first
part of the forecast. I will keep VCTS for GRI this morning as
the HRRR brings in two rounds of VCTS this morning. EAR is
looking more VCSH, but wouldn`t be surprised if an isolated VCTS
popped up. High pressure over MO will keep ESE winds over the
TAF sites through the period. Model soundings keep the low
levels dry this morning and tomorrow morning, so will keep VFR
through the period.

 &&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Beda