Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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967 FXUS63 KGID 151719 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1219 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low chances (10-20%) for rain/thunderstorms tonight and Monday evening/night. Most areas will stay dry and severe weather is not expected. - Trending windier early this week. Gusts over 40 MPH are possible (especially western areas) on Tuesday. - Rain/t-storms likely (60-80% chance) Tuesday night, although the overall severe threat remains low. - Off/on rain/t-storm chances (10-30%) continue Wednesday/Thursday. A better chance (50-60%) for more widespread rain/storms returns on Friday/Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 420 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 A few midlevel showers or weak storms could still develop over southern portions of the area this morning (similar to yesterday), although there is not much support this on the latest CAMs. Otherwise, the daytime today should remain dry through the daytime with fairly quiet midlevel flow and increasing southerly flow in the lower levels. Temperatures should reach the mid to upper 80s, and south- southeasterly winds are expected to gust to the 20-30 MPH range. This evening into tonight, a weak shortwave will eject into the central/northern Plains ahead of a deeper upper low centered over the west coast. This could bring a few showers/storms to parts of the area, although there hasn`t been a lot of consistency on near-term models. Most locations will stay dry. Monday will be similar to today, with low-end PoPs as another shortwave approaches from the west. Winds will trend a bit higher as the upper low nudges eastward towards the area. Tuesday is likely to be the windiest day of the week, just ahead of the advancing upper low. The 00Z EPS ensemble mean has 40+ MPH wind gusts across western parts of the area, and the 01Z NBM has daily peak gusts nearing 50 MPH on our western periphery. Tuesday evening into Tuesday night, thunderstorms are expected to develop and move in from the west as the upper low ejects over the northern Plains. Areas to our west appear to be more favored for severe storms given the current timing and lackluster deep-layer shear. As such, SPC has kept the Day 3 Marginal Risk to our west. Regarding rain totals, the latest NBM shows a 20-40% chance of 0.50" or more Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. That`s not an overwhelmingly great signal for beneficial rain...but its better than the little to no rain we`ve had over the first half of September. The upper low then continues to track north-northeastward, and will not push much cooler air into the area. As such, temperatures remain pretty consistent for Wednesday/Thursday. Spotty rain/tstorm chances continue as another system moves into the west coast. This next trough then is expected to push into the central/northern Plains Friday into Saturday, bringing more chances for widespread rain. In fact, this period appears more slightly more favorable for widespread meaningful rain (compared to Tuesday night). The NBM shows a 50-70% chance for an additional 0.50" (or more) of rain Friday through Saturday. Global ensembles then favor a cooldown next weekend and into the following week. The consensus is for highs in the 70s (a few degrees below normal), but there is a pretty large spread and therefore quite a bit of uncertainty. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: VFR conditions are currently forecast for this TAF period, and the forecast also remains dry, though there is some uncertainty in that during the morning hours on Monday...especially for KGRI. Models showing some morning activity developing across eastern portions of the area, and most keep it just east of KGRI. Otherwise, though increased clouds are expected, at this point expecting them to remain VFR. Gusty south-southeasterly winds continue this afternoon, with gusts around 25 MPH...diminishing this evening and overnight. The final few hours of this period will have southerly winds increasing once again, with gusts around 25-30 MPH possible. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Mangels AVIATION...ADP