062
FXUS63 KGID 201717
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1217 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An isolated shower or thunderstorm could develop across just
  about any portion of the local area this morning, but chances
  are low and anything remotely on the strong side should be
  limited to areas north of Highway 92 late this afternoon and
  evening.

- Periodic disturbances moving through the area will keep
  preciptiation chances (20-40%) in the forecast, mainly Friday
  and Saturday, and again Monday night through Wednesday night.
  Overall confidence is on the lower side, and many areas may
  actually remain dry through the period.

- Hotter temperatures are expected to return to the area this
  weekend and early next week, with temperatures peaking in the
  mid 90s to near 100 both Monday and Tuesday afternoons. If
  realized, heat index values will likely be over 100 degrees to
  start next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Low clouds can be seen on satellite filling in across the local
area this morning. While there are some hints of pockets of
dense fog developing this morning in some model guidance, think
the steady winds and low cloud cover should keep visibilities
in the 3-5 mile range at worst through the morning hours. In
addition to the low cloud cover, a line of showers and
thunderstorms can be seen across central Kansas early this
morning, although this line is forecast to dissipate before
daybreak...with the main focus of any additional shower and
thunderstorm development expected to be just northwest of the
local area and closer what`s left of the frontal boundary that
lifted north across the area overnight. That all said, cannot
rule out an isolated shower of thunderstorms across the entire
area this morning and across areas north of I-80 this
afternoon...as there is a bit of instability to work with...
however any activity locally should again be isolated and non-
severe.

While there will be significant cloud cover to start the day,
skies should clear from south to north through the afternoon
hours, with at least partial sunshine expected across the area
later in the day. This, along with the warmer temps that have
advected northward, should allow high temperatures to climb to
near of just above seasonal norms by afternoon. By late
afternoon, could see additional shower and thunderstorm
development north of I-80, as an upper level disturbance tracks
across western Nebraska and moves into South Dakota late this
afternoon and evening. If a storm associated with this
disturbance does clip our area, could see some small hail and
gusty winds, especially for areas north of Highway 92.

As high pressure builds across the southwest late in the
weekend, expect the chance for thunderstorms to diminish Sunday
and Monday as heights aloft rise, allowing temperatures to peak
early next week in the mid 90s to near 100 for Monday and
Tuesday afternoons. This will bear watching as it will be close
to heat advisory criteria across at least parts, if not all of
the local area, and continued to advertise the heat potential in
the HWO this morning. Additionally, small chances for storms
could return as early as late Monday evening as the first of
several disturbances rounds the top of the ridge and moves into
the plains. At this time, all of the precip chances in the
forecast are on the lower confidence side, and 7 day QPF from
the WPC is on the order of 0.01-0.25" through the period, so
many areas may eventually remain dry for much, if not all, of
the next 7 days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

MVFR stratus gradually diminish/lift here at midday, a trend
that is expected to continue, allowing for VFR conditions to
return early-mid afternoon. Kept mention of VFR through the
rest of the period, and with better chances for preciptiation
lifting north, should also be a dry TAF period. Winds through
the period remain southerly, gusts near 25 MPH expected this
afternoon and again mid-late morning on Friday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...ADP