191
FXUS63 KGID 200558
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
Issued by National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1258 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly sunny and warm with highs in the mid to upper 80s
  through Friday.

- Widespread rain/t-storms this weekend, especially Saturday
  afternoon through Sunday morning. Rainfall amounts have been
  lowered some from previous forecast, but still appreciable,
  model QPF average now 0.75 northwest to 1.75 southeast.

- Mainly dry next week or just a few slight (20%) chances for
  rain. The big story next week will be the cooler fall like
  temperatures (Highs 65-75, lows 40s).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 425 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Tonight through Friday...

Winds will become nearly calm tonight as a surface high rests over
our forecast area. Clear skies initially this evening will give way
to increasing high clouds by late tonight into Friday ahead of the
strong upper level low swinging through the desert southwest. Friday
will remain warm (mid to upper 80s) with return southerly flow as
the surface high slides east and we see pressure falls across the
high plains ahead of the next upper trough. Currently believe that
any precipitation chance should hold off until after midnight Friday
night and then favor our southeastern zones.

Weekend Rain Still On Track But Amounts Have Come Down Some...

The strong upper low is projected to track northeast into Colorado
on Saturday and we expect increasing showers and thunderstorms out
ahead of this system especially by late afternoon into the evening
hours. However, forecast models are backing off of some of the higher
2 plus inch rainfall amounts from a few days ago. The 9/19 12Z ECMWF
ensemble average precipitation amount came in lower for the second
day in a row now indicating on average 0.75 inches across our northwestern
zones to 1.75 inches across our southeastern zones. We will probably
have some locations that get less than a half inch out of this
system. The 12Z GFS and ECMWF runs both came in with lower precipitation
amounts than yesterday and last night. At this point it seems like
most areas from the Tri- Cities and locations to the south and east
are still in good shape to pick up weekend total rainfall amounts
of 0.75 to 1.5 inches with some locally higher amounts over 2 inches
still possible. Locations northwest of the Tri-- Cities now
seem like they will be a bit lower. Am not expecting severe
weather this time as instability will be lacking.

Timing of the weekend rainfall favors the Saturday late afternoon
and evening hours through Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Saturday should still be a pretty warm day for most locations
ranging from the mid 70s northwest of the Tri-Cities to the 80s
from Hastings and Grand Island east and south. However, it will
be a cool rain on Sunday with our expected highs now being
lowered into the mid 50s in the Tri-Cities to maybe around 60
over north central Kansas.

Monday through Thursday...

The upper low will pass off to our east allowing for subsidence and
drier conditions. We will also be fore fall like with highs generally
in the 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1256 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

- Ceiling/visibility/precipitation/thunderstorm potential:
High confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility through the period,
with the majority of it featuring only varying degrees of high
level cirrus. There is also high confidence that at least the
vast majority of the period will remain rain/thunderstorm-free
(especially the first 21 hours). However, there are hints toward
the very end of the period Friday evening (03-06Z) that
isolated thunderstorm activity could develop over the general
area. IF this were to occur, a quick bout of hail/gusty winds
cannot be ruled out. That being said, the probability of any
storms impacting KGRI/KEAR is currently deemed no higher than
10-20%, and thus will refrain from any thunderstorm TAF
inclusion at this time.

- Winds:
Very light/variable direction winds will remain in place early
this morning. Then, Friday daytime will feature a gradual increase
in speeds out of the south-southeast, peaking 18-23Z during
which time sustained speeds 13-15KT/gusts around 20KT will be
common. Finally, speeds will again ease down for Friday evening
as direction remains out of the south-southeast.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...Pfannkuch