365
FXUS63 KGID 181734
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1234 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering showers storms east of Highway 281 through noon.
  Severe weather is not expected with this activity.

- Spotty redevelopment in the late afternoon/evening (5pm-11pm).
  Most will stay dry, but a few storms could be strong to
  marginally severe.

- Still on track for widespread rain this weekend.

- Cooler next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 454 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

As expected, the line of thunderstorms continues to weaken as
it moves eastward across the area. CAMs show spotty/showers
storms lingering over the eastern half of the area through noon
before finally completely clearing out. There is a low chance
that a few thunderstorms redevelop late this afternoon and
evening (5pm to 11pm) in eastern portions of the area. If these
storms develop, convective parameters would favor strong to
severe updrafts, therefore the eastern half of the area remains
in a "Marginal Risk". That being said, coverage of these storms
should be pretty limited, and its possible that our area misses
out entirely.

After dry/quiet weather on Thursday, another upper low will
approach from the west on Friday. A few showers/t-storms remain
possible Friday evening and overnight, but this potential
continues to decrease, and the main window for rain/thunder
appears to be Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. The
overall threat for severe weather is pretty low, with the CSU-
MLP only highlighting a small 5% area in NE/KS.

Exact details on rainfall totals remain quite uncertain at this
range, but totals over 1.00" are likely (50-80% chance) across
much of the area. Some deterministic model runs show as much as
3-4" in some areas. This is certainly possible on a localized
bases, but global ensembles indicate that rainfall totals in the
1.00-2.50" range will be most common (roughly the 25th to 75th
percentile).

Cooler air then filters in behind this system. High
temperatures may struggle to reach 70 degrees in many locations
through at least the first half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Breezy south southwest winds gusting to between 20 and 24 kts
this afternoon will quickly die down to less than 10 kts and
become southeasterly this evening around dusk. A frontal
boundary will slide through around dawn resulting in a
northwesterly wind tomorrow morning.

Low clouds are the main concern for the first few hours this
afternoon as we could see periods of MVFR ceilings, especially
at KEAR. The low clouds will eventually clear out, but probably
not until around sunset. There is a very small possibility of
patchy fog around dawn tomorrow, but too low of a probability to
include in the TAF at this point in time.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Beda/Wesely