966
FXUS63 KGID 180917
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
417 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and storm chances increase tonight (up to near a 65%
  chance) and continue across at least a portion of the area
  each day through Friday night.

- Severe storms are possible Sunday through Monday night. The
  main hazards will be large hail and damaging wind gusts, but a
  tornado or two will be possible.

- High temperatures will mostly range from the 60s to the 80s
  and low temperatures will range from the 40s to the 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 414 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Today and tonight...

An upper trough is over the northern Rocky Mountains and northern
Plains. A cold front associated with this trough is moving towards
south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas.
Currently, temperatures across the area are mostly in the 60s. The
cold front will push through the area by this afternoon with gusty
northerly winds. High temperatures today are expected to be in the
70s and 80s with the surface high across the area. Winds will shift
to the south tonight as the surface high moves east. Low
temperatures tonight will be in the 50s and low 60s. A shortwave
will move across the area tonight resulting in an increased chance
(up to near a 65% chance) of showers and thunderstorms. Widespread
severe weather is not expected tonight but a few strong to
marginally severe storms are possible.

Sunday and Sunday night...

An upper trough will dig southward over much of the western part of
the country on Sunday. Shortwaves are still expected to move over
south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas on
Sunday. This will result in continued chances (up to around a 75%
chance) of showers and thunderstorms on Sunday. Severe storms will
be possible on Sunday with fairly high CAPE, wind shear, and mid-
level lapse rates expected. High temperatures on Sunday will be in
the mid 70s to upper 80s. Storms are expected to continue into
Sunday night with up to a 70% chance. Low temperatures Sunday night
will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Monday and Monday night...

The upper trough over the western part of the country will continue
to deepen on Monday. A cold front will begin to push into the area
on Monday, but high temperatures are still expected to warm up into
the mid 70s to mid 80s. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible
(15% to 25% chance) on Monday with chances increasing up to around
85% Monday night. Severe storms will be possible during the day on
Monday but will be more likely Monday night as upper lift increases.
Low temperatures Monday night will be in the low 50s to mid 60s.

Tuesday through Wednesday night...

A broad upper trough will be over the central part of the country on
Tuesday. This trough will be accompanied by a cold front moving
through the area on Tuesday. High temperatures on Tuesday are
expected to range from the mid 60s to lower 80s. Showers and
thunderstorms will continue to be possible (up to around a 65%
chance) on Tuesday and up to around a 35% chance Tuesday night. Low
temperatures Tuesday night will range from the lower 40s to the
lower 50s. Temperatures will cool even more on Wednesday as the
surface high moves closer to the area. Highs on Wednesday will range
from the mid 60s to mid 70s. Rain chances of up to 25% will remain
across the area on Wednesday. Low temperatures Wednesday night will
be similar or a degree or two warmer than the previous night.

Thursday through Friday night...

Winds will be out of the south on Thursday with an upper trough to
the west of the region. High temperatures on Thursday will mostly be
in the 70s with up to around a 25% chance of showers and
thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. Low temperatures Thursday night
will range from the upper 40s to mid/upper 50s. The previously
mentioned upper trough will begin to move over the central and
northern Plains Thursday night resulting in an increased chance (up
to around a 45% chance) of showers and storms. The upper trough will
begin to move east of the area on Friday with a cold front pushing
into south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas.
High temperatures on Friday are expected to be similar to those from
the previous day. Low temperatures Friday night will be similar to
the previous night. Rain and storm chances (up to around a 40%
chance) will continue Friday and Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Wind shear is expected to continue until around 11z or 12z. MVFR
ceilings are expected to briefly impact the terminals between
14z to 16z. Winds will be gusty out of the south to southwest
then weaken and become gusty out of the northwest to north by
15z. Winds will weaken by 21z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Schuldt