Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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984 FXUS63 KGID 130538 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1238 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms increase in coverage this afternoon, and continue into the evening and overnight. Rain chances will slowly subside from NW to SE on Monday. - General pattern for the upcoming week will be off and on chances for showers and thunderstorms with several passing disturbances in the zonal to NW flow - most notably Tue night into Wed and Fri/Fri night into Sat. - Temperatures will be seasonably pleasant each day in the 70s and 80s - very low risk for anything extreme. - Risk for severe weather appears to be seasonably low for the upcoming week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 415 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Areas of showers were fairly and hit and miss much of the morning hrs, but have since increased in coverage and intensity (quite a bit more lightning) this afternoon. This was aided by some periods of filtered sunshine that allowed temperatures to warm into the low to mid 70s in spots, which is essentially convective temperatures for today. Cold mid level temps associated with cut off low pressure area in NW KS have aided in steepening lapse rates and at least a few hundred joules of CAPE to develop, but effective shear is very weak. Thus, not expecting much more than localized heavy downpours, pea size hail, and gusty winds in the strongest of cores. Will likely see a decr in coverage and intensity with loss of daytime heating after sunset, though at least widely scattered activity will continue into the overnight. Models have trended a bit slower with the exit of the system on Monday, so areas particularly E/SE/S of the Tri-Cities could hang onto showers, perhaps a few weak storms, through the AM hrs and even into early aftn. Elsewhere, rain-free areas will warm into at least the low to mid 70s amidst brzy N-NE winds during the aftn. The rest of the forecast is really just more of the same - chances for showers and thunderstorms, which look to be mostly non-severe, every couple of days due to series of generally weak mid to upper level disturbances in active zonal to NW flow. This will prevent temperatures from straying too far above or below normal. In fact latest ensemble guidance shows pretty tight clustering in the low 70s to low 80s pretty much each day through Friday. Spread increases into next weekend due to differences/uncertainty in timing and amplitude of systems by then. Despite the active pattern, in general, severe chances appear fairly minimal as the frequency of systems/front prevents the real juicy/unstable air from making it into the area before the next front pushes it back south. Models indicate at least a chance for higher instability at some point next weekend, but again, confidence on details is low at this time. In the meantime, Tuesday and Thursday are best chances to remain dry this week, and Tuesday will even have only light and variable winds. Monday AM, Wednesday, and at some point Fri into Sat are the periods to watch for moisture, but even these are not looking to be overly widespread or persistent periods of showers and thunderstorms. So all in all, pretty nice by mid- May standards! && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Models are indicating the potential for low cloud development over the next couple of hours, and looking at a couple of webcams and the latest ob at HDE...some low clouds and br starting to develop in spots. Held off on LIFR stratus settling in at KGRI and KEAR for a couple of hours...but once it settles in...expect it to persist through the early morning hours, with clouds eventually clearing from west to east and VCSH potential also diminishing through the mid to late morning hours. VFR conditions are expected to prevail by midday...with very light winds overnight increasing out of the north and gusting to between 15-20KTS aft 13/18Z. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Thies AVIATION...Rossi