Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 281129
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
629 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably warm today. Continued warmth on Friday, but with
  breezier northwest winds.

- Only spotty chances for rain Friday night and again Saturday
  night.

- Medium chance (30-70%) for rain and snow Sunday night into
  Monday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Wednesday ended up warmer than expected, especially in the
snow-covered portions of the area. Therefore, today has trended
even warmer as upper level ridging moves overhead. Forecast high
temperatures range from the upper 50s in northern portions of
the area to the low 70s in portions of Kansas.

Cloud cover increases tonight as a shortwave passes to our
north. This will push a cold front through the area on Friday.
This will turn winds to the northwest, but the airmass behind
the front is not significantly cooler. Expected high
temperatures still range from the mid 50s to low 70s. A few
sprinkles/flurries are possible Friday night, but the chance for
anything measurable is very low (below 15%).

Saturday trends slightly cooler, and a chance for precipitation
(mainly rain) arrives with another low-amplitude shortwave. Best
chances favor the northern half of the area. The 00Z NAM shows
100-200 J/kg of MUCAPE, so it would not be totally surprising to
hear a few rumbles of thunder.

Exact timing/details vary amongst the deterministic models, but
a more well-defined upper low arrives Sunday night into Monday
will bring better chances for precipitation to the entire area.
Monday is expected to be the coolest day of the forecast period,
and some areas could see some snow. That said, all three of the 00Z
global ensembles show slightly decreased snow potential compared
to the 12Z guidance. Even the 01Z NBM (which does not
include the 00Z ensembles) decreased slightly, and only snows a
5-10% chance for 1" of snowfall over our northwestern half.

After this system exits the area, drier and warmer temperatures
are expected to return through the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

VFR conditions expected through this TAF period, with only a low
chance (10-15%) for MVFR conditions just prior to sunrise on
Friday.

Winds gradually become more westerly this morning before turning
back to the south and southeast this afternoon through this
evening.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels


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