841
FXUS63 KGID 240842
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
342 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers moving southeast through the area are expected to
  depart after sunrise this morning.

- High temperatures are expected to remain pretty steady this
  week, ranging from the mid 70s to low 80s.

- The 7 day forecast looks to be dry, with the closest rain gets
  with this forecast would be into eastern Kansas Friday night /
  Saturday morning (precipitation chances stop just southeast of
  our forecast area).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Today and tonight...

Early this morning, rain showers associated with a cold
front are making their way southeast across the area. These are
expected to depart south central Nebraska and north central
Kansas by shortly after sunrise, with skies quickly clearing
this afternoon. Behind the front this morning, winds will turn
to the north and increase to 10-15 mph. An upper level ridge
over the Pacific Northwest will move east into the Salt Lake
Valley and the Intermountain West. With the upper trough moving
east out of the area into Iowa and Missouri, a strong northerly
jet will set up over the forecast area. As the ridge begins to
move into the area, temperatures will be a little warmer today
than they were yesterday, with highs up to at least the mid to
upper 70s. Tonight, the upper trough will slide a little further
to the east but not far, serving to block the upper ridge from
moving completely over the central Plains. Overnight lows will
range from the low to mid 40s across our northern and
northwestern counties to around 50 degrees across north central
Kansas.

Wednesday...
The upper level pattern will start to split into a northern and
southern track at this point. The northern track over Canada
and the northern Plains will continue to progress eastward. In
the southern track, which will be the portion affecting our
forecast area, the upper level ridge will continue to be stuck
over the Rockies and southwestern US and the previously
mentioned upper low will only progress as far as Arkansas. With
the upper ridge elongating over portions of the forecast area
Wednesday, temperatures are expected to be warmer with afternoon
highs reaching or exceeding 80 degrees in most locations.
Ensemble solutions indicate a 15-20% chance of some areas north
and west approaching or exceeding 85 degrees, and this would
make sense as our western counties should be more heavily
impacted by the ridge.


Thursday and Friday...
The upper ridge will remain mostly locked in place and that
upper level trough will start rotating in place (still centered
in Arkansas). This will be due in large part to a tropical
system that will be moving through the Gulf of Mexico. The
tropical system will make landfall in Florida at some point
Thursday afternoon or evening, by which time the upper low and
tropical system will start displaying evidence of the Fujiwhara
effect (where the two systems rotate around a common center
point). With our forecast area sandwiched in between the ridge
and this region of low pressure, the main question will be
whether the low wobbles far enough north as it rotates to bring
any rain to our area. Unfortunately, it doesn`t look like it as
the latest model guidance continues to keep rainfall mainly over
Missouri and far eastern Kansas. With the pattern over our area
much the same, temperatures also will not change much with highs
in the upper 70s to low 80s expected both days.

Saturday through next Monday...
By the weekend, the two areas of low pressure will merge into
one and the system will start to meander northeast before
getting caught in the main upper flow Monday, allowing it to
move along faster afterward. The ridge will start to show signs
of progressing Monday as well. High temperatures should be much
the same, upper 70s and low 80s.

Beyond this, model guidance diverges significantly with some
solutions extending that ridge over the area through much of
next week, with others dropping a trough across the area around
the middle of next week. Am leaning toward the warmer, drier
ridge-like pattern and the CPC outlook also favors a warmer and
drier pattern, but it is way too early to forecast that with any
confidence.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

A few sprinkles or showers are expected to move through early in
the TAF period. These will be spotty in nature, so went with a
VCSH as opposed to a prevailing -RA in the TAFs. Skies will be
BKN to OVC at 9k to 12k ft AGL as these move through. That cloud
deck will thin out with an increase in cirrus clouds this
morning, before clouds totally clear out late this afternoon and
evening.

Winds will become light and generally westerly as light rain
showers move through the area, then increase to 10-12 kts and
becoming north to northwesterly after sunrise, and finally light
and variable toward the end of the TAF period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hickford
AVIATION...Hickford