140
FXUS63 KGID 231744
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1244 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chances (15 to 30 percent) of rain showers moving across
  the area from northwest to southeast late this evening through
  Tuesday morning. Rainfall amounts would be pretty low, perhaps
  a few hundredths of an inch.

- High temperatures are forecast to be in the mid to upper 70s
  through the 7 day forecast period, although would not be
  surprised to see a few locations reach the low 80s some of
  those days.

- Low chances (15 to 25 percent) of periodic rain showers in
  our southern and eastern counties Friday afternoon through the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Today...
At the upper levels, a trough will depart the region today while
at the surface, high pressure will move into the forecast area.
This will bring clearing skies and light winds today. Morning
lows will range from the upper 30s in our far northern counties
to the mid to upper 40s across most of the rest of the forecast
area. In fact, portions of Valley and possibly Sherman counties
may see a couple of hours of patchy frost around sunrise.
But with dry conditions expected temperatures will quickly
rebound from the cool start and highs will reach the 70s across
the area this afternoon.

Tonight and Tuesday...
A few sprinkles or rain showers are expected to move into the
area from the northwest tonight ahead of a cold front, but these
are expected to move through the area by around noon Tuesday
with negligible rainfall amounts. The cloud cover will keep
tonight`s lows up into the upper 40s and low 50s. A strong upper
ridge developing over the western half of the country will
support temperatures again rapidly warming during the day
Tuesday, but exactly how much is a bit of a question. Nudged
temperatures a couple of degrees above model consensus with the
entire forecast area in the 70s, but with that strong of an
upper ridge moving in and the latest ensembles showing a 20 to
30 percent chance of temperatures over 80 degrees in north
central Kansas, there may be some cause to increase those a bit
more.

Wednesday and Thursday...
The upper pattern will end up splitting into a northern and
southern flow around the middle of this week with our forecast
area somewhat caught in between, but the specifics of the more
southern flow will be more impactful as far as our weather is
concerned. The upper trough in the northern portion of flow will
continue eastward into eastern Canada and New England, while the
southern portion stalls just northeast of the Arklatex
region...this will be caused by a quickly developing tropical
system moving north through the Gulf of Mexico preventing its
eastward progression. This is also expected to stall the
southern portion of the upper level high pressure over the
southwestern US. That being said, the weather will be dry with
highs in the 70s both days.

Friday through the weekend...
To start out with the easier part of this period to talk about,
high temperatures are expected be in the 70s through the
weekend. The more challenging portion of the forecast will be
the chances for rain during this time. After the previously
mentioned tropical system moves north and makes landfall late
Thursday, the upper low will remain fairly stationary and rotate
in place, bringing low chances (15-25 percent) of rain to our
southern and eastern counties Friday afternoon through the
weekend. Models currently look pretty set on keeping the low too
far southeast to help us in the rainfall amount department, but
if the low were to shift northwest into the area, so would more
beneficial rainfall...that looks unlikely at this time, though.
However, deterministic model guidance has a growing consensus of
a fairly strong weather system moving across the central Plains
around the middle of next week, which would probably be our next
best shot at any decent rainfall if that pattern were to hold
together.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

A few clouds ahead of an approaching cold front tonight will
break into the area starting as early as 02z Tuesday. VFR
conditions are expected to retain as the lowest cloud level is
set to remain around 8,000 ft with the secondary level around
20,000 ft. Light rain showers to sprinkles will be possible as
the line moves trough between 06 and 12z Tuesday morning. Shower
coverage should remain limited. Light winds from the south today
will flip north with the passage of the front.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hickford
AVIATION...Stump