818
FXUS63 KGID 282103
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
403 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a Marginal (1/5) to Slight (2/5) Risk for severe
  thunderstorms this evening for the area, with wind being the
  main threat with any storms that are able to develop. A
  Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall has also been put out for
  the area.

- The weekend is looking pleasant with cooler temperatures and
  periodic chances (20-50%) for showers and thunderstorms mainly Saturday
  night through Sunday.

- The weekend is looking pleasant with cooler temperatures and
  periodic chances (20-50%) for showers and thunderstorms mainly
  Saturday night through Sunday.

- Areas north of Interstate 80 have been outlooked in a Day 4
  risk area for severe weather by the Storm Prediction Center.
  This will be something to keep an eye on as we get closer to
  the event.


- Independence Day will be hot with highs ranging from the
  mid-80s to low 90s. There is a 20-30% chance of showers and
  thunderstorms.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 401 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

The heat continues this afternoon across portions of south central
Nebraska and north central Kansas.  Current temperatures are
primarily in the 80s to low 90s, with a cold front pushing through
the state.  The front has moved through the Tri-Cities, with winds
mainly out of the north to northwest.  A few showers moved through
the area earlier today, with additional chances mainly after 7PM.
Thunderstorms will start across the western portions of the area,
expanding in coverage to the east as the evening progresses.  SBCAPE
of 2000+ J/kg, and MLCAPE of 1000+ J/kg are expected along with
DCAPE values of 1100+ J/kg, ML lapse rates around 7 C/km, and steep
low-level lapse rates in the west.  The main concern for any severe
weather this evening will be wind.  Some hail, an isolated tornado,
and localized flooding may also be a concern.  The Storm Prediction
Center has outlooked portions of the area for either a Marginal Risk
(1 of 5) or Slight Risk (2 of 5) for tonight.  The main areas of
concern for severe weather will be along and ahead of the front
(which includes  the southern and western portions of the area.
Additionally, the Weather Prediction Center has outlooked us in a
Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall for this evening.

Heading into the overnight hours, thunderstorm chances (20-30%)
persist, with strong to severe storms not expected.  The cold front
will bring in some cooler air for the weekend, making conditions
very pleasant.  Expected high temperatures will range from the mid-
70s to low 80s for Nebraska and the upper 70s to low 80s for Kansas.
 Lows will be primarily in the 50s and 60s on Sunday morning, and
the 60s on Monday morning.

As far as precipitation chances are concerned for the weekend, a few
showers and thunderstorms may linger into the morning on Saturday.
The rest of the day is looking dry, with additional showers and
thunderstorms late.  Showers and thunderstorms will be possible
again on Sunday.

Monday, an upper ridge moves to the east, with southwest flow in
place over the High Plains.  Temperatures are expected to climb with
warm air advecting into the region.  The current forecast as most
areas in Nebraska in the 90s and north central Kansas in the 90s to
around 100 degrees.  Heat index values may approach or exceed 105
degrees, which may result in heat headlines needing to be
considered.  The heat is expected to continue into Tuesday,
although, slightly cooler temperatures are expected.

Periodic shower and thunderstorm activity is expected through mid-
week.  Any one area may not see shower and thunderstorm activity
each day.  The Storm Prediction Center has put out a Day 4 Outlook
for severe weather for areas along and north of Interstate 80.  The
Weather Prediction Center has outlook the northeastern portion of
the Hastings CWA with a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall.

For those planning on outdoor activities for Independence Day, there
is a 20-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms through the day.
Daytime highs are currently forecast for the mid-80s (north) to low
90s (south).  Continue to monitor the forecast for the latest
updates.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

For KGRI: VFR conditions are expected for much of the forecast
period. Northwest winds will shift to the north later today as a
cold front moves into the region. There is a chance for a few
late afternoon and evening storms in the vicinity of the
terminal. At this time, confidence in where storms will develop
is low at this time. The main concern with any storms will be
damaging winds. Heading into the overnight hours, winds become
light and variable, returning to the north Saturday morning.

For KEAR: MVFR conditions are possible for a few more hours as
showers move out of the region. Ceilings are expected to improve
to VFR later this afternoon. Northwest winds become northerly
later this afternoon as a cold front moves through the area.
There is a chance for a few strong to severe thunderstorms
developing along the front later this afternoon into the
evening, although location is still a little up in the air.
Winds become light and variable overnight, before turning to the
north tomorrow morning.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wekesser
AVIATION...Wekesser