Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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299 FXUS63 KGID 212100 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 400 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A strong cold front is tracking south across the area today resulting in breezy northerly winds with gusts of 25-35 mph. Much cooler high temperatures only in the upper 50s to lower 60s are expected on Sunday. - Latest forecast models continue to come in with even lower rainfall amounts tonight into Sunday across our area as main appreciable precipitation belt has now shifted southeast of even our north central Kansas counties. Tri-Cities mean total QPF now only 0.10 - 0.25". - Best bet at possibly picking up 0.50" or better rainfall through Sunday is now across our southern tier of counties (Rooks, Osborne, Mitchell). Can`t rule out several half inch rainfall reports further north into southern Nebraska, but current odds are less than 50/50. - Any precipitation that we do see should be on its way out of the area by Sunday evening. Most areas are then expecting dry conditions Monday through Saturday. - Temperature-wise: lovers of early-fall weather (highs mainly 70s/lows mainly 40s-50s) should really enjoy next week! && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 318 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Tonight through Sunday... This storm system is turning into a real disappointment for many of us that need rain. What once was a rather impressive upper low that entered California and tracked across the desert southwest is clearly now projected to weaken as it makes its turn towards the northeast and our central plains region that we call home. Most forecast models now open the upper wave up as it loses strength as well as track the remains of this system further south with each new forecast model run. Consequently, the storm system that 3-4 days ago most models and ensemble members were hailing as an appreciable rain maker for the Tri- Cities is now down to an ensemble average of 0.10 - 0.25". It`s been a gradual reduction in the strength of this system for the past few days and I know it will disappoint many. Our far southern zones across north central Kansas could still salvage over 0.50", but the higher amounts may be somewhat scattered. The stronger potentially severe thunderstorms this evening should primarily remain east and southeast of our forecast area where the SPC marginal risk remains in place. Most of any precipitation on Sunday will be general rain showers, but can not rule out a few isolated claps of thunder, nothing severe expected. The bigger story may be the much cooler temperatures with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Raised the highs a bit for Sunday following the NBM due to expectation of less overall rainfall. Next Week... Our weekend upper wave basically washes out as it tracks east towards the Mississippi Valley. A second short wave trough will slide southeast out of Canada and through the northern plains. Forecast models have been struggling on what to do with this system and seem to now be leaning towards cutting it off as an upper low to our south or southeast. This system doesn`t really bring much moisture with it hence our mainly dry forecast next week as it slips on by. At this time the forecast is for some moisture to start working back north next week and getting wrapped into this next system as it meanders off to our south southeast, but favoring southeastern Kansas and Missouri. Therefore, our forecast remains mainly dry and mild (70s) next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1257 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: The clouds and precipitation will be moving into our TAF sites slower than previously advertised. Although the heavier rain will be south of KGRI and KEAR, we still expect periods of showers and thunderstorms mainly later tonight after sunset into Sunday morning. Ceilings will fall some, but VFR ceilings are still the most likely scenerio, although can not rule a brief period of MVFR ceilings or visibility during periods of heavier rainfall. The wind will remain out of the north and rather breezy gusting to over 30 mph at times this afternoon, but should decrease to under 20 mph tonight. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wesely AVIATION...Wesely