Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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501 FXUS63 KGID 232329 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 629 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - 20% chance of light showers or sprinkles overnight tonight as a cold front moves from the northwest to southeast. There will be a limited coverage of measurable rainfall accumulations. - Highs this week will generally range in the mid to upper 70s with a chance to reach the low 80s by the end of the week. - The next best chance of rain (20%) will fall Friday for the south and east portions of the area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 322 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Tonight through Tomorrow morning... The quick cooldown from yesterday has knocked the regional maximum temperatures down this week a few degrees from last (generally from the mid 80s to upper 80s down to the mid to upper 70s). This falls as the shortwave trough aloft moved out of the area. At the surface, high pressure around from Sunday with upper level sinking on the upstream side of the departing trough will keep the rest of the day dry and clear. Highs will remain in the lower 70s today with overnight lows in the low to mid 50s (10-15 degrees warmer from this morning). A sinking cold front overnight may bring a quick shower or sprinkle to the area after 11PM. Chances (15-20%) will start in the NW and will side south and east through the night. Measurable rainfall amounts will be limited. A few clouds in the morning will eventually scatter out to high level ice clouds later in the day. Light southerly winds tonight will switch to the north behind the front. Tuesday through Wednesday... A ridge popping out from a rex block along the Pacific coast will send a northerly jet stream across our region Tuesday. Light winds at the surface (8 to 12 MPH) occasionally gusting as high as 16 MPH will additionally start out from the north-northwest. High pressure at the surface combined with the downstream eastward propagation of the mid to upper level ridge will limit any precipitation chance through at least Thursday. Once the last bits of high thin and wispy clouds manage to scroll out Tuesday evening, the unfiltered sun will work to keep temperatures stable for the week in the mid to upper 70s and even occasionally approaching the lower 80s. Quiet weather should follow into Wednesday with clear skies leading the way. Highs will generally start in the upper 70s, a few degrees warmer from Tuesday. The lack of moisture this week, typical for this time of year, will keep the minimum relative humidity mainly between 35% and 45% in the daytime. Fire weather concerns currently remain low, but on careful watch for any further bottoming of the RH values or for intensification of winds later on in the week. Thursday through Friday... The upper level flow will stall Thursday as it becomes sandwiched between the upper level ridge and a pinching cut off low. This low will start centered over Arkansas, potentially retrograding westward some on Thursday. The placement of this low by Friday will affect our next precipitation chance (20%). Currently uncertainty lies with where the Gulf developing tropical system will eventually make landfall. The positioning of the low and the tropical activity will control how effective the moisture transport will be up and around to the northwest side of the cutoff low. Chances remain virtually non-existent (<15%) for a majority of the area with 20% pops on our south and east edges. Saturday and beyond... Temperatures may edge up to the lower 80s for parts of the area over the weekend with a potential wobble in temperatures to start next week. A few long range guidance models are showing the potential for a relatively strong cold front to swing in through early next week. If this scenario plays out, a notable drop in temperatures as well as the next best area wide precipitation chance could be possible. The Climate Prediction Centers guidance however, suggests a continuation of dryer weather with just above average temperatures to end off September. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 626 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period...can`t totally rule out some sprinkles/light showers passing through as a disturbance swings across the region. Coverage looks isolated- scattered, so kept mention going as VCSH. This disturbance will also be pushing a cool front through the area...and while winds turn more light/variable this evening into the overnight hours, this front will usher in north-northwesterly winds in from around sunrise on through the day. Gusts near 25 MPH will be possible from around late morning on through the afternoon. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Stump AVIATION...ADP