Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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405 FXUS63 KGID 190854 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 354 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and mostly dry through Friday. - Widespread rain/t-storms expected Saturday into early Sunday. - Trending drier and cooler next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 354 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 A few thunderstorms persist over eastern Nebraska/Kansas, but any additional development should stay safely to our east today. Temperatures should push into the 80s today (near 90 in SE zones), accompanied by mostly clear skies and a light northwest wind. Southerly winds return on Friday in advance of our next storm system. This will allow temperatures to once again make a run at 90 degrees, although this will be our last chance at the upper 80s and 90s for a while... Some isolated convection becomes possible Friday night, although this favors areas to our south. Chances for rain and thunderstorms then continue to increase through Saturday morning as the upper low approaches from the west. There are still some timing differences between amongst global deterministic/ensemble runs, but the overall most favorable time for rain is Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. An overall lack of instability will keep the threat for severe weather pretty low. Models have now come into a little better consensus that dry conditions return by Monday morning. Rainfall totals have trended a bit downwards over the past 24 hours. The 00Z ensemble suite shows that 1.00" or more is still likely (50-80% chance), but the probability for 2.00"+ has decreased and shifted east-southeastward. This is especially true on the latest GEFS and EPS...while the GEPS is still on the wetter side. In total, 1.00-2.00" appears to be the most likely range, although many locations will receive less/more than this. Of course with fairly widespread clouds/rain, temperatures will trend cooler for the weekend. On Saturday, some areas could still reach the low 80s before rain/storms move in, but Sunday will be even cooler. Many areas may struggle to even reach 60 degrees Sunday afternoon. Quite the change as we currently sit in the mid 60s to mid 70s at 330am! Depending on how quickly skies clear Monday morning, western portions of the area could get quite cold. Our current forecast is for lows in the low to mid 40s, but the 01Z NBM shows a low chance (10-30%) that our west and north could drop into the upper 30s! There are some low chances for rain through next week, but there isn`t much consistent signal on the ensembles. Temperatures slowly rebound back towards normal by the middle/end of next week (lows near 50...highs in the 70s). && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1150 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 A weak cold front will move through the TAF sites this morning. The models are hinting at a FEW to SCT015 layer this morning, so kept the mention of it in the TAFS. Winds pickup a little this afternoon and will taper off this evening as high pressure moves in. This weekend is looking wet with IFR to MVFR ceilings Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Ceilings gradually rise to VFR by Sunday afternoon. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Mangels AVIATION...Beda