184
FXUS65 KGJT 232056
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
256 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated storms may linger over southwest Colorado through
  sunset otherwise dry conditions are expected.

- Dry and warm conditions are expected during the remainder of
  the week as high pressure settles over the region. Near record
  highs are expected from Thursday through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 256 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Weak troughing aloft will be transitioning to an expansive and
strong ridge over the next 24 hours or so. There is some last
gasp convection forming over the southern terrain this afternoon
as a result...but after this a prolonged dry and warm period
will be setting up. Perfect fall weather...though it will still
feel like summer as temperatures warm well above normal. Highs
tomorrow look to start out 2 to 5 degrees above climatology
then pushing 10 to 15 above by the end of the week. Overnight
lows will continue to be cool in this dry pattern. With
lingering low level moisture isolated areas of morning fog
popped up in some of the valleys this morning. With a drying
profile this should become less likely but this remains a low
confidence forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 256 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

An omega "blockish" pattern sets up by Wednesday with low pressure
off the SoCal Coast and in the Mississippi Valley with ridging along
the Rocky Mountains. It`s only "blockish" in that the western half
of the pattern lacks jet support with the jet remaining well to the
north in a zonal flow that keeps the ridging knocked down,
especially later in the period when the ridging limited to Colorado
and New Mexico. Being in the shoulder season, leaning on the
ensemble mean forecasts in the long term gives similar solutions
through the extended forecast period. That being said, confidence
falls somewhat beyond Friday or Saturday with the deterministic GFS
and some ensemble members digging a deep trough into the Pacific
Northwest by Sunday bringing unsettled weather to the region. Though
this is a minority solution, it is feasible with lack of jet support
to the west. We`ll just have to wait and see how this plays out.

That being said, the extended forecast through next Monday for
eastern Utah and Western Colorado is for dry conditions under mostly
sunny skies and generally light, terrain driven breezes.
Temperatures will run eight to 13 degrees above the seasonal normal
temperatures for early Fall through the period with the lower
valleys on the higher end and the mountains on the lower end.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1136 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

A few building clouds over the terrain are occurring late this
morning...a few of which may lead to some light showers over the
southern mountains through sunset. However VFR conditions will
prevail under a light wind regime. The biggest challenge will be
forecasting the return of low clouds/ground fog near KGUC again
tonight...confidence low but placed a hint in the forecast for
now.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...TGJT