364
FXUS65 KGJT 250414
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1014 PM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and unseasonably warm conditions are expected during the
  remainder of the week. Near record highs are expected from
  Thursday through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 228 PM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Satellite imagery shows the cutoff low off SoCal, a shortwave system
descending out of the Gulf of Alaska towards the Pacific Northwest,
rigging over the Intermountain West with a cloudless sky and
troughing over the Mississippi Valley. The models are all in good
agreement with the imagery. Little has changed with the forecast
with the high pressure shifting east over thew Rocky Mountains
tomorrow and east of the Divide by Thursday morning as the shortwave
pushes into the Pacific Northwest. Expect mostly clear skies and
light breezes through the short term period.  Morning temperatures
tomorrow and Thursday will run about five degrees above normal while
tomorrow afternoon will get up to five to ten degrees above normal,
near records in some areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 228 PM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Not sure what is going to be more impressive the tropical
cyclone wrapping into the mid level cyclone over the SE.CONUS or
the strength of the anticyclone over southern High
Plains/Rockies on Thursday. Will have to call it a tie but
these two features will stay intertwined will through the week
and play a role in our forecast. The downstream low will create
an effective and prolonged block of the flow in the mid to
lower latitudes of the CONUS which will keep the strong ridge
pretty much in the vicinity of the Southern Rockies through the
weekend. It will also prevent an upstream low off the Cali
Coast from making it inland. Just a piece of it looks to get
absorbed by a passing trough in the northern stream on
Sunday...otherwise a reflection of the low will still be there a
week from now according to the latest global solutions. So with
a strong anomalous high floating around the 4 Corners
region...the hot and dry forecast will continue. Near record to
record highs will be flirted with each day by the end of the
week and likely into the start of the weekend. The only
uncertainty in this forecast arises in the late Friday/early
Saturday time frame. An area of channelized vorticity getting
drug across the Rockies by the northern stream looks to get
pulled into the eastern cyclone and hung up over the Colorado
High Country/Divide area by the afternoon...creating some light
convection. The mositure looks to come from a post frontal
environment on the Front Range so much of the activity would be
more probable to occur just east of our CWA. Something to watch
other than the thermometer hit 10 to 15 degrees above normal at
the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1012 PM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024

High pressure will continue with VFR conditions at terminals
through the TAF period. Light terrain driven winds and clear
skies will continue.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...TGJT