339
FXUS65 KGJT 141853
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1253 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler temperatures and scattered showers today across the
  region. Shower activity becomes more isolated north of the
  highway 50 corridor and confined to the terrain.

- Hot and dry conditions return Saturday with a few showers
  possible on the mountains.

- Hot and dry continues Sunday with southwesterly winds picking
  up and near critical fire weather conditions becoming more
  likely Sunday and beyond.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 400 AM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

The fetch of tropical moisture lifting into the Four Corners this
morning continues to struggle with overcoming the dry boundary layer
conditions in place across the region. Dewpoints began inching up
late last night in Blanding and Moab, increasing by some 20 degrees.
Unfortunately, this was only good for some virga showers and traces
of rain at a few ASOS locations, along with a few spirited wind
gusts. After record highs Thursday afternoon, cloudy skies with or
without rain will likely be welcome today, as afternoon highs are
expected to be nearly 10-15 degrees cooler. The weakly organized
upper low slowly decays into an open wave, crossing the Four Corners
this morning. Current thinking is that the trough passage and
terrain enhancements will spark a few showers that might actually
reach the ground later this morning as it lifts across the San Juans
and our Central Mountains. The best moisture with this system hangs
up on terrain to the south of highway 50 this afternoon, while
elevated areas northward can still expect scattered showers. Forcing
will quickly outrun the thinning moisture supply later this
afternoon. Cloud cover will also likely squash hopes for
instability. High res models are painting a few showers on the
backside of the trough over northwest Colorado and our northern
mountains this evening, but by midnight, dry air takes over and
clearing skies will deliver cooler and tranquil conditions to most
of the CWA Saturday morning. A flattened transitory ridge will pass
Saturday to the south of a much stronger frontal boundary working
through the PACNW. Some weak moisture makes it across the Great
Basin on its southern perimeter and will likely spark a shower or
two on our terrain Saturday afternoon. Tightening pressure gradients
allow southwesterly winds to pick back up across our northern
counties with the Uinta and Yampa Basins gusting to around 30 mph
Saturday afternoon. Hot and dry conditions will return to our
deserts and low valleys, with temperatures there pushing towards
triple digits again.&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 400 AM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Precipitation ends Saturday night as the system will have shifted to
the Plains states and dry air returns to the region. An approaching
area of low pressure will move into the PacNW Sunday afternoon which
will cause our winds to become west through southwesterly. An active
jet stream will be supporting this area of low pressure and as it
moves across WA/OR and eventually ID and MT, this jet will round the
base of the low pressure. The location of the jet will allow some
stronger winds to materialize thanks to a tightening surface
pressure gradient and deeper mixing, tapping into stronger winds
aloft. Expect to see widespread wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph on Sunday
with gusts of 30 to 40 mph being common on Monday. Model runs have
indicated these winds for the last few days so confidence continues
to increase that these winds will materialize. Dry conditions will
also remain in place as humidities drop to the single digits through
low teens so widespread critical fire weather conditions are looking
likely for both Sunday and Monday, possibly Tuesday...maybe even
Wednesday as well. Once the system moves up into Canada, a large,
dry trough will move through and cause winds to become more
northerly. This wind shift will bring cooler temps to the region for
Tuesday but they`ll be short-lived as winds become more southerly
Wednesday onwards...allowing temps to increase day by day.

So for the long term period, plenty of sunshine expected, not much
in the way of precip with some gusty winds for Sunday and Monday
with increasing chances for critical fire weather conditions Sunday
through...let`s say Tuesday though they `might` occur again on
Wednesday but with less coverage.

&&

..AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1227 PM
MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Widely scattered showers with embedded isolated thunderstorms
are starting to fire across the region. Look for these storms to
continue through about 02Z before diminishing through the
evening hours. Expect breezy west to southwest winds through
the afternoon with gusts associated with convective activity to
about 25kts. Will see periods with ceilings below ILS
breakpoints at KASE, KEGE and KRIL before 02Z. Skies will clear
out overnight with light drainage winds through the remainder of
the TAF period.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LTB
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...DB