048
FXUS63 KGLD 271954
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
154 PM MDT Mon May 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Relatively mild conditions with highs around 80 and winds
  generally below 10-15 mph are forecast for Memorial Day and
  Tuesday. A few non-severe, showers and storms are possible
  during the evening hours both days.

- Warm and active pattern is expected next week, with chances
  for storms bringing an associated flooding risk.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 150 PM MDT Mon May 27 2024

Abundant sunshine, light winds, and near normal temperatures
are making for a pleasant afternoon this Memorial Day. Overnight,
temperatures fall into the middle 40s to middle 50s. A weak
wave moving through later this evening into the morning hours
may initiate a few sprinkles/showers or at least an increase in
mid-level cloud cover.

A more active pattern returns following the holiday as we head into
the work week, bringing decent moisture into the region. This uptick
in moisture will allow for an increase in storm chances as waves
continue through the flow; additionally will be monitoring for
flooding potential as multiple days of locally heavy rainfall are
possible.

While the upper ridge moves over the Rockies on Tuesday,
an embedded disturbance will move through from the southwest,
introducing slight chance to chance PoPs by afternoon, continuing
into the evening and overnight period. A few storms may develop by
mid afternoon over eastern Colorado and move generally east-
southeastward across locations along/south of I-70. PWAT values are
forecast to be in the ~1-1.25 inch range. WPC continues a marginal
risk for excessive rainfall across far southern portions of the
area, including Greeley and Wichita counties. Severe weather is
currently not expected. Afternoon highs are forecast in the low to
mid 80s; overnight lows are forecast in the low to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 150 PM MDT Mon May 27 2024

Around mid-week, the upper ridge will move over the Plains, and an
upper trough will enter the western CONUS. This will shove the ridge
eastward and prompt shower/storm development by Wednesday afternoon-
evening. SPC continues a marginal risk for severe weather across
western portions of the area, generally along/west of Hwy 27.
Primary hazards with any severe storms include large hail and
damaging wind gusts. Guidance is picking up on storm development
over the high terrain to our west in the afternoon, tracking
eastward into our area and clustering together by the mid-afternoon
to evening hours. WPC also continues a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall across the entire area on Wednesday.

During the latter part of the work week, the upper low swings across
the western Canada/US border, generating additional waves as it does
so, allowing better chances for showers/storms (greatest chances on
Thursday at around 50-75% when PWAT values approach 1.5 inches
across eastern portions). Severe weather along with a flooding risk
will be possible. Shear values to around 30-35 knots and CAPE values
reaching 2000-3000+ J/kg are forecast for Thursday; lesser
instability (CAPE to around 1000-1500 J/kg) but greater shear (~50-
60 knots) forecast for Friday. WPC has included locations generally
east of Hwy 27 in at least a marginal risk for excessive rainfall on
Thursday; the slight risk clips eastern Graham county. Friday`s PWAT
values come down into the 0.8 to 1.15 inch range - some flooding may
still be possible, concern will focus on locations receiving heavy
rainfall in previous days, resulting in saturated soils.

Heading into the weekend and start of the next week, there is lesser
confidence at this range; however, the current forecast calls for
slight chance showers/storms and a warming trend.

Regarding temperatures, highs are forecast generally in the upper
70s to middle 80s, slightly cooler at the close of the work week.
Highs might then climb into the upper 80s to near 90 by the
start of the next week. Overnight lows are forecast generally in
the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1128 AM MDT Mon May 27 2024

VFR conditions are anticipated to prevail at both terminals through
the 18Z TAF period. Generally light northwesterly winds (~5-10
knots) this afternoon will begin to veer this evening to take on an
easterly component through the remainder of the period. A few
showers are possible within a few hours either side of sunrise, but
due to low confidence in impact to the terminals have omitted from
this TAF issuance.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 306 AM MDT Mon May 27 2024

Highly efficient moisture return looks to begin late Tuesday night
and continue into the end of the workweek via the 850 mb LLJ. This
moist conveyor belt will cause PWATS to increase above 1 inch
starting Wednesday afternoon and potentially remain that way until
Saturday. The highest values will be in the eastern CWA, but the
majority of the Tri-State area will have a good chance (60%+) at
seeing PWATS above 1 inch. Throughout this active pattern, a high
melting layer is also expected, generally 11,000-15,000 feet agl.

Thursday is currently the best day for storms to create heavy
rainfall that could lead to rate-driven flash flooding. However,
Friday and Saturday are also at risk for flooding potential due to a
combination of efficient rain producing storms and potentially
multiple days of heavy rain saturating the soil.

Current confidence in localized flooding occurring in the latter
half of the week is around 10%.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC
HYDROLOGY...