464
FXUS63 KGLD 132050
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
250 PM MDT Mon May 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Smoke from Canada may impact the Tri-State area today and
  tomorrow. Those with respiratory concerns are encouraged to
  keep a watchful eye on air quality levels.

- Summer-like temperatures are expected Tuesday, with widespread
  80s expected.

- Periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected
  Tuesday/Wednesday and again Saturday/Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 247 PM MDT Mon May 13 2024

For the rest of this afternoon, an upper trough will continue to
move to the east, with the western part of the Tri-State area coming
under northerly flow.  Expected afternoon high temperatures will be
primarily in the 70s.  Visible satellite imagery shows a few cumulus
clouds moving across the region. There is a small, non-zero chance
of an isolated shower or thunderstorm popping up this afternoon in
the eastern part of the area.  Northerly winds have been
transporting smoke from fires in Canada into the region. Those with
respiratory concerns will want to be mindful of conditions over the
next day and a half as the HRRR shows the potential of smoke staying
in the region.

Tuesday, northwesterly to westerly flow will be set up over the
region. Expected high temperatures will be reminiscent of early
summer, reaching the low to mid-80s across most areas. At least
for the morning hours, dry conditions are expected. There will
also be a chance of some smoke from Canada impacting the area.
Heading into the afternoon, an upper trough drops south into
northern Utah and Colorado. There will be a chance for showers
and thunderstorms beginning in the afternoon. At this point in
time, severe weather is not anticipated.

Tuesday evening, a cold front is expected to move into the region.
This will bring in some cooler air to the region.  This should also
help clear out some of the smoke.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 247 PM MDT Mon May 13 2024

An upper trough will move across the region on Wednesday, bringing
additional chances for showers and thunderstorms.  There is a
possibility that any thunderstorms that develop will produce heavy
rain, which may result in some localized water issues.

Thursday, the trough will exit the region, and the area will come
under northwest flow on Friday.  Expected high temperatures will be
in the 70s Thursday.

Expect a warm up on Friday with the northwest flow in place, ahead
of our next system.  High temperatures Friday will be in the 80s.  A
few low 90s will be possible for an area along and east of a line
from McCook to Colby to Tribune.  Periodic showers and storms will
be possible over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Mon May 13 2024

VFR conditions are expected at both terminals through the
forecast period. A few low to mid-level clouds will be possible
this afternoon across the region. Smoke from fires in Canada may
also result in some hazy skies, but the worst of any issues
should remain to the east of the northeast of the terminals.
North winds will shift to the east this evening and into the
overnight hours, becoming southerly around or shortly after
sunrise.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wekesser
LONG TERM...Wekesser
AVIATION...Wekesser