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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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530 FXUS63 KGLD 121915 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 115 PM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very hot today and Thursday with high temperatures in the upper 90s to lower 100s. - Isolated thunderstorm chances today, with slightly better chances Thursday evening/night. Some severe storms are possible. - Thunderstorm chances increase on Friday, with a risk for severe storms as well as heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially Friday night. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 114 PM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Across the region this afternoon, sunny and hot conditions persist area-wide. Temperatures are currently ranging in the 90s as of 100 PM MDT. there is a surface trough currently traversing the area, providing a southerly fetch for areas east of Highway 25, and a west- northwest flow behind it. Gusts around 30 mph are occurring on either side of the boundary. Weather concerns in the short term will focus on some isolated rw/trw potential this evening and again later tonight. This will be followed by a chance for severe storms Thursday afternoon/evening. First off, a surface trough has been slowly traversing the CWA through the day and is currently pushing through the Highway 25 area, based on current wind regime. East of there, especially for locales east of Highway 83, there still remains some decent dewpts in the lower to mid 60s. While currently stable, DCape values on soundings does show some instability, so have followed the NamNest and continued a 15 pop for isolated coverage in the southeast(Gove. Sheridan/Graham counties mainly). Any storms could produce some strong gusts with inverted-v profiles. With a strong ridge aloft over the south-central Rockies providing westerly downslope flow to aid in this warmup, guidance puts a weak shortwave over the north/east portion of the ridge towards the 06z- 09z Thursday timeframe up into portion of northeast Colorado. With weak instability/moisture available, continued isolated wording for a 15 pop for a rw/trw. Winds would be main threat concern. Going into thursday, the aforementioned upper ridge begins a slow trek eastward into the southern Plains for afternoon/evening hours. This will allow a stronger shortwave to work off the central Rockies during the afternoon hours, and interact with a surface low over southeast Colorado, with a front extending eastward into Kansas. CAMs are showing rw/trw potential to develop from west to east over the CWA. Strong to severe storms are expected. Current guidance has DCape values around 1800-2000 j/kg by 21z. MUCape/SBCape values are around 1700-1900 j/kg. As a result, SPC now has much of the tri- state region under a Marginal Risk for severe storm, with hail and wind main threats. The activity does diminish from west to east overnight. For temps, looking for lows tonight to drop into a range from the lower to mid 60s west of Highway 25, into the mid and upper 60s east of Highway 25. A few locales east of Highway 83 may only drop into the 70F range. Going into Thursday, another hot day(850 mb temps +28c to +33c before front gets established) on tap with daytime highs in the mid 90s to lower 100s. Hottest areas along/south of I- 70. This will give way to overnight lows Thursday night in a range from the lower 60s west into the upper 60s east. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 102 AM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024 The upper trough moves through the area on Saturday. Sunday-Monday an upper low enters the Pacific Northwest, progressing eastward through the first part of the work week, and brushing past the area towards the end of the long term period. Between the Saturday system, the Tuesday-Wednesday system centered to our north, and a few weak shortwaves in between, at least parts of the area hang onto daily chances for showers/storms, generally around a 20-30% chance. Temperatures for the period are forecast generally in the upper 80s and 90s with lows generally in the 60s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 959 AM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024 For KGLD, VFR conditions through the forecast period. Winds, north-northwest 10-20kts. Strongest gusts before 23z. By 03z Thursday, southeast around 10kts, shifting southwest by 08z Thursday. For KMCK, VFR conditions through the forecast period. Winds, west-northwest 10-20kts through 02z Thursday, then light/variable. By 13z, becoming northwest around 10kts. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JN LONG TERM...CC AVIATION...JN