558
FXUS63 KGLD 232037
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
237 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight chance of sprinkles and light showers tonight into
  Tuesday morning.

- Near average temperatures and dry conditions forecast for the
  upcoming week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 237 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Across the CWA this afternoon, skies are sunny as high pressure
transitions through the area. Temperatures as of 200 PM MDT are
ranging in the 70s with light/variable winds.

The main wx concerns for the short term period will focus on shower
potential later this evening into early Tuesday morning as a surface
trough/weak shortwave move southeast through the area. The system is
currently over NW Nebraska and points north. The latest CAMs
(NamNest/HRRR) show scattered 15-20% chances for RW to begin around
03z Tuesday, pushing through the region by 12z Tuesday. Weak
instability, low PW values as dewpts are currently in the 40s but
will drop further into the 20s overnight. This is seen on the
current obs near/behind the boundary. This will result in little
change from previous forecast with best precip chances in the
E/NE.

Going into Tuesday, looking for a decent northerly gradient ahead of
a surface ridge behind the system coming through. LAV guidance
suggests 20-25 mph possible around midday, but could be isolated.
Other than this, high pressure will dominate the area for dry
weather.

For temps, a range from the upper 70s into the lower 80s will
persist in the short term period, especially around midweek. The
trend will have western locales be the warmest. Lows in the 50s
tonight will give way to 40s for Tuesday and Wednesday nights.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 217 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

The latest runs of the GFS/ECMWF show much of the extended period
having amplified upper level ridging over the central Plains. This
is going to provide dry conditions to the area with near/above
normal temperatures. Guidance does bring a meandering, retrograding
upper low from the lower Mississippi Valley towards eastern KS
before lifting east. At most some increased clouds expected in the
eastern zones early Saturday morning, otherwise sunny skies will
prevail. For the late in the weekend period into next Monday, a
closed upper low works across the north central Plains w/ a trailing
cold front through the CWA in the Mon-Mon night timeframe. The
passage will bring some decent CAAa into the area for round of below
normal temps. 850mb temps for this time range +4c to +8c. The two
models do differ on the surge of a strong surface ridge into the
area behind the front, which could delay/increase the CAA into the
area by Monday night. Some gusts ahead of the ridge initially could
approach the 30-35 mph range.

For temps, looking for highs on Friday through the upcoming weekend
to range in the upper 70s into the lower 80s. Warmest areas each day
will be mainly west of Highway 25. Going into next Monday, 70s
return area-wide. Lows Thursday night will range in the 40s. For Fri-
Sun nights, 40s west into the lower 50s east, followed by slightly
colder air Monday night with a range from the upper 30s to lower 40s
in Colorado to the lower and mid 40s east of there.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1019 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Both terminals expected to see VFR conditions through the
forecast period. Winds for KGLD, southwest around 10kts through
09z Tuesday. There could be a period of light/variable from 22z
Mon-03z Tue. From 09z onward, north-northwest around 10kts.
Winds for KMCK, south 5-10kts through 00z Tuesday, then
light/variable. By 12z, becoming northwest around 10kts. There
is a low(15%) chances for showers/sprinkles to fall over the
terminals, especially KMCK. Do not expect impacts from these at
this time.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JN