Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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676 FXUS63 KGLD 142024 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 224 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms will develop in northeast Colorado by mid afternoon, reaching the Colorado and Kansas border area by 6 PM MDT, sweeping across the rest of the area this evening. The primary hazard will be destructive winds in excess of 60 mph and locally up to 90 mph. Some large hail may accompany initial storm development in the afternoon and early evening, as well as a tornado or two, before merging into clusters. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible as well as flash flooding. - There is a marginal risk for severe storms Saturday afternoon and early evening in northwest Kansas east of a Norton to Leoti line. Stronger storms will be capable of hail up to quarter size and wind gusts in excess of 60 mph. - Return of triple digit heat expected on Sunday. - Cooler temperatures expected mid-next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 222 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Severe Thunderstorm Watch number 414 is now in effect through 03z Saturday for areas in northeast Colorado and adjacent KS/NE counties(Hwy 27). Threats include 1-2" hail, winds 60-80 mph, a few tornadoes and chance for flooding rainfall. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 135 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Across the region this afternoon, sky cover is ranging widely from cloudy to sunny as remnants from morning convection, combining with new coverage from daytime heating already today, are providing decent breaks in spots from the hot conditions 24 hours ago. As of 100 PM MDT, temperatures are in the 80s, with a persistent southeast flow, with gusts into the 30-40 mph range at times. Weather concerns for the short term period will focus on the threat for severe thunderstorms later this afternoon into the evening hours. Also, there is a low threat east of Highway 25 for Saturday afternoon/evening. For the rest of the afternoon hours into tonight, aloft there is a strong upper ridge at 500mb in the south central Plains, making a slow trek eastward. At the surface, high pressure east of the area, combined with a low and associated front west, are creating a persistent southeasterly flow over the CWA. Dewpts in the 50s and 60s are resulting in moist flow covering the area with PW values in the 1.1 to 1.4 inch range. Guidance has a strong shortwave carrying east through the Rockies by 00z-06z Saturday that will interact with the aforementioned surface features to trigger convection. The latest CAMs(HRRR, RAP and NamNest) are showing a start time in the 23z Fri-00z Sat timeframe with convection building across northeast Colorado. The convection does move fairly progressively, clearing the CWA by 06z-07z Saturday. The area remains under a Slight Risk for severe from SPC, as well as a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall from the WPC. The CWA will see all potential threats from hail, wind and even isolated tornadoes. Flash flooding is also a possibility. Model soundings do suggest DCape values over 1200 j/kg with inverted-v profiles. SBCape peaks early with values initially over 2000j/kg. The shortwave will linger over the Plains tonight into Saturday, triggering some late day storms over eastern portions of the CWA. CAMs are showing locales east of Highway 83 seeing convection. A Marginal Risk for severe is issued as a result with all threats available, especially wind and heavy rainfall. Zonal flow ensues Saturday night allowing for a slow clear from west to east into Sunday morning. For temps, looking for daytime highs on Saturday to range above normal in the lower to mid 90s. Warmest locales will be along and south of the Interstate. Overnight lows tonight will range from the upper 50s to lower 60s west of Highway 25, and lower to mid 60s east of Highway 25. For the Saturday night period, slightly warmer with lower to mid 60s west of Highway 25 and mid to upper 60s east of there. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 1259 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Sunday, the low will clear the area and we will be under weak southwesterly flow aloft. This will give us about a 15-20% chance of precipitation Sunday and Monday evenings. Nothing highly organized is expected until the weak flow is disrupted, likely Tuesday afternoon. Around that time, the pressure gradient tightens up as the low over the NW CONUS pushes farther inland, moving the jet stream fairly close, if not over, the High Plains. This would work to amplify any disturbances and increase chances for PoPs. furthermore, at 850mb, the high pressure system over Texas today looks to stall out over the Mid-Atlantic Seaboard and will funnel moisture into the region Tuesday through Saturday. High temperatures Sunday and Monday look to be in the mid 90s to low 100s. Tuesday will start a cooling trend (highs in the upper 80s and 90s), but Wednesday and beyond will likely only warm into the 80s and low 90s. Overnight temperatures will follow a similar pattern and drop into the 60s to mid 70s Sunday and Monday nights, and then cool into the mid 50s to mid 60s Tuesday night and beyond. Gusts Sunday night through Tuesday morning could get up to 30-35 kts. It`s also worth noting that while the cooler temperatures look nice on the thermometer, the additional moisture will make the region feel more muggy and soupy than normal. Monday could see some localized critical fire weather conditions in the extreme southwestern CWA. Winds look to gust near 25-30 kts while RH values get into the upper teens. This is really the best chance for critical fire weather conditions as the additional moisture will keep min RH values above 30%. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1015 AM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024 For KGLD, VFR conditions through 00z Saturday, then a MVFR/VFR mix through 06z as rw/trw are expected. 4-6sm visibility reduction in rain, with ceilings down to OVC025 at times. VFR after 06z Saturday. Winds, mainly south-southeast 10-15kts. Gusts to 25kts through 00z. Winds briefly go to southwest 15-25kts from 00z-03z. LLWS 03z-06z Saturday 200@40kts. For KMCK, mainly VFR conditions at this time. The threat for storms after 00z Saturday could bring in MVFR conditions from 03z-06z. VCTS possible through at least 02z-06z. Winds, south- southeast 10-15kts. Gusts to 25kts through 02z Saturday. LLWS 02z-06z Saturday 210@60kts. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...JN SHORT TERM...JN LONG TERM...CA AVIATION...JN