Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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684 FXUS63 KGLD 190031 AAA AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Goodland KS 631 PM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Flood Watch remains in effect for portions of northwest Kansas late tonight and early Wednesday morning, mainly south of Interstate 70, where an isolated severe storm capable of producing quarter sized hail cannot be ruled out. - Much cooler/colder daytime temperatures Wednesday with near record low daytime max temperatures. - Windy and warmer Thursday-Friday with generally dry weather. - Slim chances (20%) for thunderstorms Saturday through Tuesday with highs in the 90s and lower 100s (hottest Monday and Tuesday). && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 210 PM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Tonight...showers and thunderstorms will gradually increase in coverage as they spread northwestward with the highest pops (50%-80% generally across all but Yuma and Dundy counties. NAM 250mb jet divergence favors areas generally south of I-70 for higher rainfall totals after midnight which is also where PWAT values are highest, around 1.4-1.6 inches and closer to the stalled frontal boundary. The inherited Flood Watch looks good. Not sure (based on DESI) that a few locations could see 4 inches of rain but general 1 to 2 with localized 3 inch amounts are reasonable. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 50s to near 60. Wednesday-Wednesday night...widespread low cloud cover will be over the area through the period. Morning rain showers should become less likely through the day as dry air aloft moves in from the south/southwest and moisture below 700mb moves toward the north. Presently, 30%-70% pops in the morning decrease to around 30% in the afternoon and that could be generous. Overnight, it appears another weather system moves through from south to north, supporting 50%-60% pops. Overall qpf values are pretty low with a few hundredths to tenth of an inch possible. With the widespread cloud cover and wedge of cooler air aloft, have lower high temperatures into the upper 50s to lower 60s in far eastern Colorado with lower to upper 60s elsewhere. Further adjustments will likely be needed, possibly lowering highs if the NAM verifies which is quite possible. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 50s to lower 60s. Thursday-Thursday night...drier air in the 850-500mb layer quickly overtakes the area by mid to late morning, ending any precipitation chances (currently at 20% in the morning). Generally dry conditions continue overnight. Southerly winds strengthen during the day with gusts of 25 to 40 mph, highest west of Highway 27. Breezy to windy southerly winds continue overnight, mainly west of Highway 27. High temperatures rise back into the middle 80s with low temperatures in the lower to upper 60s. Friday-Friday night...a monsoonal type pattern sets up with an upper trough to our west and ridge centered over the southeast states. This pattern funnels moisture into the area from the south. Presently, there are varying solutions as to just how much moisture reaches the area with the NAM more optimistic compared to the GFS and ECMWF. As a result, the forecast is generally dry for now. High temperatures are currently forecast to be in the middle 80s to lower 90s with low temperatures in the lower 60s to middle 70s. It will continue to be windy with southerly winds gusting to 45 mph during the day, slowly decreasing overnight. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 105 PM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Into the weekend, flow aloft veers towards the west-northwest as troughing slides east and high pressure stretches across the southern CONUS. Weak waves moving through the flow will allow for slight chance (generally around 15-20%) afternoon-evening showers/storms each day. For temperatures, the gradual warming trend continues with low- mid 90s over the weekend followed by possible return of triple digit heat by the start of the work week. Low temperatures are forecast to be generally in the 60s to perhaps a few low 70s east. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 615 PM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 VFR conditions (this aft-eve) are expected to deteriorate to MVFR-IFR late tonight and Wednesday morning -- in assoc/w the development of elevated showers/storms and low ceilings. IFR (perhaps LIFR) conditions are anticipated to prevail during the latter half of the TAF period -- late Wed morning through Wed afternoon. NE winds at 15-25 knots will decrease to 10-20 knots and gradually veer toward the E during the day on Wed. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Flood Watch from midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight through Wednesday morning for KSZ014>016-027>029-041-042. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...CC AVIATION...Vincent