141
FXUS63 KGLD 190649
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1249 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Flood Watch remains in effect for portions of northwest
  Kansas late tonight and early Wednesday morning, mainly south
  of Interstate 70, where an isolated severe storm capable of
  producing quarter sized hail cannot be ruled out.

- Much cooler daytime temperatures expected on Wednesday, with
  near record low daytime max temperatures.

- Windy and warmer Thursday-Friday with generally dry weather.

- Slim chances (20%) for thunderstorms Saturday through Tuesday
  with highs in the 90s and lower 100s (hottest Monday and
  Tuesday).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 210 PM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Tonight...showers and thunderstorms will gradually increase in
coverage as they spread northwestward with the highest pops
(50%-80% generally across all but Yuma and Dundy counties. NAM
250mb jet divergence favors areas generally south of I-70 for
higher rainfall totals after midnight which is also where PWAT
values are highest, around 1.4-1.6 inches and closer to the
stalled frontal boundary. The inherited Flood Watch looks good.
Not sure (based on DESI) that a few locations could see 4 inches
of rain but general 1 to 2 with localized 3 inch amounts are
reasonable. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 50s
to near 60.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...widespread low cloud cover will be
over the area through the period. Morning rain showers should
become less likely through the day as dry air aloft moves in
from the south/southwest and moisture below 700mb moves toward
the north. Presently, 30%-70% pops in the morning decrease to
around 30% in the afternoon and that could be generous.
Overnight, it appears another weather system moves through from
south to north, supporting 50%-60% pops. Overall qpf values are
pretty low with a few hundredths to tenth of an inch possible.

With the widespread cloud cover and wedge of cooler air aloft,
have lower high temperatures into the upper 50s to lower 60s in
far eastern Colorado with lower to upper 60s elsewhere. Further
adjustments will likely be needed, possibly lowering highs if
the NAM verifies which is quite possible. Low temperatures are
forecast to be in the lower 50s to lower 60s.

Thursday-Thursday night...drier air in the 850-500mb layer
quickly overtakes the area by mid to late morning, ending any
precipitation chances (currently at 20% in the morning).
Generally dry conditions continue overnight. Southerly winds
strengthen during the day with gusts of 25 to 40 mph, highest
west of Highway 27. Breezy to windy southerly winds continue
overnight, mainly west of Highway 27. High temperatures rise
back into the middle 80s with low temperatures in the lower to
upper 60s.

Friday-Friday night...a monsoonal type pattern sets up with an
upper trough to our west and ridge centered over the southeast
states. This pattern funnels moisture into the area from the
south. Presently, there are varying solutions as to just how
much moisture reaches the area with the NAM more optimistic
compared to the GFS and ECMWF. As a result, the forecast is
generally dry for now. High temperatures are currently forecast
to be in the middle 80s to lower 90s with low temperatures in
the lower 60s to middle 70s. It will continue to be windy with
southerly winds gusting to 45 mph during the day, slowly
decreasing overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1247 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024

From the latest GFS/ECMWF, a broad, elongated 500mb ridge will be
stretched across the southern portion of the country, allowing for
zonal flow aloft to persist through the upcoming weekend. Going into
next week, this ridge will amplify some into the central Rockies,
shifting the flow aloft to more northwesterly through midweek.

Several shortwaves are expected to move across the northern
periphery of this ridge and across the CWA. These will mainly occur
during the afternoon and evening hours. The shortwaves will interact
with surface boundaries/fronts coming off the Rockies, allowing for
mainly 15-30% chances for storms. Highest chance on Tuesday.

Hot conditions are expected each day with 850mb temps over the
weekend in the mid to upper 20s, but going into the Mon-Wed
timeframe, 850 temps reach well into the 30s each day. GFS soundings
around the 00z timeframe each day show inverted-v profiles and high
DCape values, suggesting wind threats with storms could be probable.
The positioning of the boundaries/troughs each afternoon are
allowing for a E/SE surface flow into the CWA, especially for KS/NE.
This will allow for increased moisture/PW values over an inch,
especially next week.

For temps, the region will be looking at well above normal
conditions each day. For the upcoming weekend, daytime highs will
range mainly in the 90s. A few spots in northeast Colorado may only
reach the upper 80s. Going into next week, hot conditions will
continue with highs Monday and Tuesday in the upper 90s to lower
100s, with slightly cooler conditions wednesday with 90s. Each day
the forecasted highs will be several degrees below records. Lows
will range mainly in the 60s, with some locales east of Highway 25
on Monday/Tuesday nights around 70F.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 915 PM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024

VFR conditions (this evening) are expected to deteriorate to
MVFR-IFR late tonight and Wednesday morning -- in assoc/w the
development of elevated showers/storms and low ceilings. IFR
(perhaps LIFR) conditions are anticipated to prevail through the
duration of the TAF period -- through Wednesday evening. NE
winds at 15-25 knots will decrease to 10-20 knots and gradually
veer toward the E during the day on Wednesday.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...BV