Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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144 FXUS63 KGLD 192307 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 507 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances for showers/thunderstorms continues overnight, mainly across the northwest 1/2 of the area. - Patchy dense fog is also possible across the area overnight. - Dry and warmer Thursday. - Hot with highs in the 90s Friday through Sunday then 90s to low 100s Monday through Wednesday. - Dangerous heat index values of 100 to 106 degrees east of Highway 25 Monday and Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 130 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Tonight...latest model guidance in general agreement that the combination of 850-500mb relative humidity and higher pops should remain focused along and west of Highway 27 through midnight before continuing to the northwest while weakening. Given the very poor performance of much of the guidance the past 24 hours, I`m rather pessimistic in the precipitation forecast. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the middle 50s to middle 60s. Cant rule out some fog in spots and next shift may need to update the forecast based on latest data. Thursday-Thursday night...drier air in the 850-500mb layer quickly overtakes the area by mid to late morning, ending any precipitation chances. Southerly winds strengthen during the day with gusts of 30 to 40 mph, highest west of Highway 25. Breezy winds continue overnight, mainly west of Highway 27. High temperatures warm back up into the 85 to 90 degree range with low temperatures in the 60s. Friday-Friday night...a monsoonal type pattern sets up with an upper trough to our west and ridge centered over the southeast states. Unfortunately, moisture from Mexico is skirted to the south of the area. There is a bit of moisture in the 700-500mb layer that moves off the Colorado front range and into the northwest 1/4 of the forecast area during the afternoon and evening, supporting 20%-30% chances for showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 80s to middle 90s with low temperatures in the lower 60s to middle 70s. It will continue to be windy with southerly winds gusting to 40 mph during the day, slowly decreasing overnight. Saturday-Saturday night...500mb flow shifts from southwest flow aloft to zonal with troughing to our north and an elongated ridge to our south. Presently, dry weather is forecast. There could be a few thunderstorms flirting with the northwest and western corner of the forecast area in the afternoon/evening. High temperatures are forecast to be in the middle 80s to middle 90s with low temperatures in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1237 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024 The area will be under west-northwesterly flow aloft as a ridge axis crosses the Rockies at the close of the weekend with high pressure centered over the southern CONUS. Low pressure moving across Alberta/Saskatchewan/Manitoba will work to (briefly) flatten the ridge, promoting more of a zonal flow, and shortwaves moving through will keep slight chance afternoon-evening PoPs, generally around 15- 20%. Towards the latter part of the long term period, ridging again amplifies upstream as an upper low meanders along the coast of British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest. For temperatures, the warming trend continues with low-mid 90s Sunday followed by return of near-triple digit to triple digit heat by the start of the work week. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the 60s to low 70s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 502 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024 MVFR ceilings are currently ongoing at KGLD along with near MVFR ceilings at KMCK. Soundings and nearly all guidance strongly suggest that ceilings will continue to decrease through the period with IFR to LIFR stratus becoming the main aviation concern through mid morning. Guidance also does show some patchy dense fog south of the Interstate; it is possible that it may impact the KGLD terminal but should be transient in nature and short lived so have included VCFG for the period where this is currently favored. More hit and miss showers may occur overnight so will continue the VCSH. VFR conditions look to return mid morning as drier air moves into the area again; however wind gusts of 30-35 knots look likely during the day Thursday. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...CC AVIATION...Trigg