Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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120 FXUS63 KGLD 271121 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 521 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Not as hot but humid today with scattered severe storms this afternoon and evening with all hazards possible. - Severe storm potential continues Friday with large to very large hail and wind threat. - Daily potential for afternoon/evening storms this weekend into next week. - Heat index values in the low triple digits Monday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 224 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Showers and embedded storms are finally starting to become a bit more established across the area. As mentioned in last nights discussion that there was a chance we would have to overcome some drier air which would cause rainfall to be a bit delayed. Looking at current RAP soundings that was the case. With the continued decaying of showers through the evening, that has allowed the area to saturate just enough for precipitation to form. Overall severe threat is low through the night, however will need to watch for some wind and perhaps some heat bursts as mesoanalysis still showers well over 1000 j/kg of DCAPE present. Anticipating some stratus to develop in wake of these showers and storms around sunrise, however guidance has been struggling handling the coverage and duration of the ongoing rain so overall coverage with the stratus is low. The stratus continues to appear to hang on for the majority of the day so have continued the keep temperatures across the east in the low to mid 80s. Elsewhere highs in the 90s are currently forecasted, with the humidity in place a fairly muggy day for High Plains standards will be on tap. As for convection potential for Thursday. If the stratus does manage to hang on for the majority of the day then a mesoscale differential heating boundary will be the main focus for afternoon convective initiation ahead of a subtle shortwave. Should storms initiate along this boundary which at this time appears to be from Graham County back into Wichita/Greeley county vicinity the environment would be favorable for supercell development with all hazards in play. The NAM does also show a 700mb jet streak situated across SW Kansas into eastern portions of the area roughly where this differential heating boundary may be which would help lift across the area. It is worth noting at this time the NAM is the only guidance showing this feature. The above mentioned shortwave will also bring some potential for isolated to scattered storms off of the Palmer Divide. Some potential for large hail is possible with this activity but warmer temperatures aloft and meager lapse rates may keep this threat lower. Perhaps the greater severe threat with this activity will be wet microbursts as a very moist air mass will be in place. The RAP and NAM soundings all have a microburst composite of 7-8 which is on the higher end of "chance potential" according to SPC Mesoanalysis page. A potential 3rd area of concern for severe weather for Thursday will be across northern and northeast portions of the area. Discrete supercells that develop in the Sandhills and Nebraska panhandle may merge into a cluster impacting portions of SW Nebraska and adjacent northeast CWA counties in Kansas. CAMS overall are not in very good consensus with this solution, however the HREF and WRF NSSL both suggest this potential which typically handles coverage fairly well. Damaging winds would be the primary hazard with this area. As mentioned above a very moist air mass is in place with PWATS of 1.7 to 2 inches which is around 90th percentile to max for this area for this time of year according to SPC sounding archives so will need to monitor for potential localized flooding concerns with storms. Friday will see a surface trough push through the area from the northwest. Highs for the day will again be the upper 80s to mid 90s across the area. Storms are forecast to develop off of the Front Range and along the surface trough in the Nebraska Panhandle and eventually become an area of cluster of storms with some embedded supercell potential as it moves ESE across the area. Any supercell that can materialize may pose a very large hail threat despite relative lower MUCAPE along with lower PWAT values and dew points, wind shear is very strong which would help keep hail aloft longer. 700 mb temperatures are also cooler than the previous days as well which would support hail growth. Will also need to watch for damaging wind threat especially if a cluster does form and does bow out. Saturday, will be a similar pattern to Friday but overall mesoscale features at this time are a little uncertain along with quality of moisture. NAM suggests that 60-low 70 dew points return ahead of a potential MCS developing across northeast Colorado; whereas the GFS is a bit delayed with the moisture return keeping it across southern Kansas. If the NAM does pan out then a severe risk would again be possible along with very heavy rain. GFS would virtually have no precipitation except for extreme western and southern portions of the area which may be clipped by the MCS. A lot still needs to be worked out for Saturday so stay up to date with the latest forecast. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 215 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Upper ridge will be centered over Texas to start the period but gradually moves eastward and by the end of the period will be centered over Georgia. Favored track of shortwaves rotating around its periphery will also gradually shift eastward. That track will be over eastern Colorado Sunday, the central part of the forecast area Monday, the eastern part on Tuesday and then moving east of the area by Wednesday. There will also be shortwaves in the zonal flow coming out of Colorado as the ridge retreats. So, either way we will have daily shower and thunderstorm chances associated with both features. Location and strength of best severe parameters vary from day to day, but suffice to say there will likely be at a minimum a marginal risk each day. Repeated rounds of storms may also present a risk of flooding at some point. Temperatures will start out near normal on Sunday in a post frontal regime, but triple digits return for Monday with the ridge at its strongest, followed by a gradual decrease in temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday as the ridge retreats, albeit still above normal. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 514 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Showers and embedded storms continue to move across the area and are forecasted to end this morning around 15Z. Deterministic guidance continues to indicate that low stratus will develop across eastern portions of the area this morning, whereas short term guidance keeps everything VFR; so for KMCK have opted to go SCT for stratus coverage due to broken area of showers and storms which should help keep ceilings VFR. However if this moves out then low stratus may develop. KGLD continues to be on the western periphery of this potential stratus deck. Showers and storms again are forecasted to develop this afternoon and at this time appear to be hit or miss. Have opted to include a prob30 for each terminal as a moist air mass is in place so will not take much thunderstorm wise to lower visibilities. A potentially stronger cluster of storms may impact KMCK so have included the stronger winds for them. Rain is forecasted to move out of the area early Friday morning but will need to monitor for fog/status due to the moist boundary layer from the rain and lighter winds. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Trigg LONG TERM...024 AVIATION...Trigg