Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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260 FXUS63 KGLD 150126 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 726 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect for northwest KS and southwest NE this evening. Brief/localized wind gusts up to 65 mph and localized reductions in visibility associated with blowing dust are the primary hazards with ongoing activity progressing eastward across northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska. - A few thunderstorms may develop east of Highway 83 in northwest Kansas late Saturday afternoon. An isolated severe thunderstorm capable of producing quarter size hail and wind gusts up to 65 mph is possible, should storms develop. - Return of triple digit heat expected on Sunday. - Cooler temperatures expected mid-next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 720 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Colorado counties have been removed from Severe Thunderstorm Watch 414. Environmental conditions and trends in radar and observational data suggest that brief/localized wind gusts up to 65 mph and localized reductions in visibility associated with blowing dust are the primary convective hazards with ongoing activity progressing eastward across northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 135 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Across the region this afternoon, sky cover is ranging widely from cloudy to sunny as remnants from morning convection, combining with new coverage from daytime heating already today, are providing decent breaks in spots from the hot conditions 24 hours ago. As of 100 PM MDT, temperatures are in the 80s, with a persistent southeast flow, with gusts into the 30-40 mph range at times. Weather concerns for the short term period will focus on the threat for severe thunderstorms later this afternoon into the evening hours. Also, there is a low threat east of Highway 25 for Saturday afternoon/evening. For the rest of the afternoon hours into tonight, aloft there is a strong upper ridge at 500mb in the south central Plains, making a slow trek eastward. At the surface, high pressure east of the area, combined with a low and associated front west, are creating a persistent southeasterly flow over the CWA. Dewpts in the 50s and 60s are resulting in moist flow covering the area with PW values in the 1.1 to 1.4 inch range. Guidance has a strong shortwave carrying east through the Rockies by 00z-06z Saturday that will interact with the aforementioned surface features to trigger convection. The latest CAMs(HRRR, RAP and NamNest) are showing a start time in the 23z Fri-00z Sat timeframe with convection building across northeast Colorado. The convection does move fairly progressively, clearing the CWA by 06z-07z Saturday. The area remains under a Slight Risk for severe from SPC, as well as a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall from the WPC. The CWA will see all potential threats from hail, wind and even isolated tornadoes. Flash flooding is also a possibility. Model soundings do suggest DCape values over 1200 j/kg with inverted-v profiles. SBCape peaks early with values initially over 2000j/kg. The shortwave will linger over the Plains tonight into Saturday, triggering some late day storms over eastern portions of the CWA. CAMs are showing locales east of Highway 83 seeing convection. A Marginal Risk for severe is issued as a result with all threats available, especially wind and heavy rainfall. Zonal flow ensues Saturday night allowing for a slow clear from west to east into Sunday morning. For temps, looking for daytime highs on Saturday to range above normal in the lower to mid 90s. Warmest locales will be along and south of the Interstate. Overnight lows tonight will range from the upper 50s to lower 60s west of Highway 25, and lower to mid 60s east of Highway 25. For the Saturday night period, slightly warmer with lower to mid 60s west of Highway 25 and mid to upper 60s east of there. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 1259 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Sunday, the low will clear the area and we will be under weak southwesterly flow aloft. This will give us about a 15-20% chance of precipitation Sunday and Monday evenings. Nothing highly organized is expected until the weak flow is disrupted, likely Tuesday afternoon. Around that time, the pressure gradient tightens up as the low over the NW CONUS pushes farther inland, moving the jet stream fairly close, if not over, the High Plains. This would work to amplify any disturbances and increase chances for PoPs. furthermore, at 850mb, the high pressure system over Texas today looks to stall out over the Mid-Atlantic Seaboard and will funnel moisture into the region Tuesday through Saturday. High temperatures Sunday and Monday look to be in the mid 90s to low 100s. Tuesday will start a cooling trend (highs in the upper 80s and 90s), but Wednesday and beyond will likely only warm into the 80s and low 90s. Overnight temperatures will follow a similar pattern and drop into the 60s to mid 70s Sunday and Monday nights, and then cool into the mid 50s to mid 60s Tuesday night and beyond. Gusts Sunday night through Tuesday morning could get up to 30-35 kts. It`s also worth noting that while the cooler temperatures look nice on the thermometer, the additional moisture will make the region feel more muggy and soupy than normal. Monday could see some localized critical fire weather conditions in the extreme southwestern CWA. Winds look to gust near 25-30 kts while RH values get into the upper teens. This is really the best chance for critical fire weather conditions as the additional moisture will keep min RH values above 30%. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 555 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Adverse aviation conditions associated with scattered to numerous thunderstorms are possible at both terminals this evening.. mainly in the 00-06Z time frame.. when surface wind gusts up to 50 knots are possible in vicinity of any storms. VFR conditions will otherwise prevail through the TAF period. Southeasterly winds will veer to the S tonight and SW during the day on Saturday. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...Vincent SHORT TERM...JN LONG TERM...CA AVIATION...Vincent