Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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356 FXUS63 KGLD 161838 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1238 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures approaching or exceeding 100 degrees are expected across the majority of the Tri-State area today and tomorrow. Heat indices approaching 105 degrees are possible along and east of Highway 283 today. - There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Confidence is low in whether or not storms will develop, however if they do large hail and damaging winds will be possible. There is also a risk for a tornado or two if storms develop along a cold front from northern Yuma County eastward along the Kansas and Nebraska border area, including southwest Nebraska. - Similar to today, there is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. Confidence remains low on whether or not they will develop. However, conditions remain favorable for large hail, damaging winds and a tornado or two should storms form. - Monday will be windy to very windy during the afternoon and evening hours. South winds gusting 40 and up to 60 mph will be possible. Areas of blowing dust may develop due to the strong winds. - Tuesday there is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Confidence is higher that storms will develop. In addition to the severe risk, heavy rainfall and flash flooding will become a concern Tuesday night with repeated rounds of thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 315 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Widely scattered thunderstorms continue through the early morning hours today, remnants of earlier convection in Colorado that is being sustained on the nose of a 40-45kt low level jet. This activity should wane by sunrise. Today, frontal boundary will sink into the area this morning, stall out around Interstate 70, then slowly lift north as a warm front this afternoon. Temperatures south of the front will easily reach the upper 90s to lower 100s, with low to mid 90s to the north. The front will also potentially serve as a focus for convective initiation this afternoon, with more isolated storm development possible south of the front. CAMs are split on whether or not initiation will occur, with the HRRR showing nothing but the NAMnest showing scattered storms, so confidence is rather low. However, any storm that develops near the front could potentially be a supercell, with easterly low level winds on the immediate cool side resulting in an environment characterized by moderate instability and deep layer shear of 40-50 kts. This area would be basically along and north of Highway 36, including northern Yuma County eastward into southwest Nebraska, between 21z and 03z. Further south, the deep layer shear will initially be weaker, around 25 kts, but does increase during the late afternoon to early evening to around 40 kts, so cannot rule out an isolated severe storm even in the remainder of the area. Potential hazards along and north of the front include a brief tornado, large hail and damaging winds, while south of the front they will be mainly a marginal wind and hail threat. Once again, this is only if storms actually manage to develop. Even the NAMnest has storms moving out to the north by 03z, so the window will be short. On Monday, southwest flow aloft will increase ahead of an upper low approaching the northern Rockies. The surface front will get sheared out parallel to the upper flow by the afternoon from northeast Colorado into western Nebraska, with a surface low near the Tri- border area. As the surface low deepens the pressure gradient will result in windy to very windy conditions across the area during the afternoon and evening. Some of the models suggesting wind gusts approaching high wind criteria of up to 60 mph during the afternoon and early evening. In addition, the gusty winds may produce areas of blowing dust with favorable low level lapse rates. Temperatures will top out in the upper 90s to lower 100s once again. Precipitation chances remain low confidence, with the CAMs once again in poor agreement on whether or not convective initation will occur. Upper forcing is weak, with only a hint of a perturbation in the flow. At the surface, the cold front will extend northeast from the surface low, potentially in the northwest corner of the forecast area, with a diffuse dry line trailing south along/just west of the Kansas and Colorado border area. These surface features are what the models that do initiate convection are keying on for development. Similar to today, instability/shear parameters will be most favorable along and north of the front, but slightly less favorable to the south, and least favorable west of the dry line/south of the front. Given all of the uncertainty, could only justify slight chance pops at this time. Storms, if they develop, should lift quickly into Nebraska by mid evening. Tuesday, southwest flow aloft continues. The surface front does make progress and the models show it roughly from a Norton to Tribune line in northwest Kansas by the afternoon. There is a stronger shortwave trough that moves across the area, with convective initiation looking more likely along the front. Tuesday night, models producing copious rainfall across eastern and southern areas, likely due to training as the front makes only slow progress southward since it is still parallel to the upper flow. In addition to the marginal severe risk Tuesday afternoon with initial storms, flooding may become a bigger concern as we get into Tuesday night. High temperatures will be in the 70s and 80s north of the front and lower 90s south, with lows Tuesday night in the 50s and 60s, perhaps even some upper 40s in Colorado. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 1238 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Generally west-southwesterly flow is anticipated through the long term period as high pressure is centered over the Mid-Atlantic coast, slowing eastward progression of upper troughing over the western CONUS. In this setup, weak shortwaves will keep daily chances for showers/storms over the area, generally in the afternoon- evening hours. Wednesday is the exception, with better chances (to around 60-70%) and more of a time window for occurrence as chances continue throughout the day. It`s during the latter part of the work week and into the weekend that the upper trough starts eastward, eventually shifting flow west-northwesterly with ridging building in upstream. Regarding temperatures, Wednesday continues to trend down with highs topping out in the middle 60s to middle 70s under cloudy skies and with chances for showers/storms through the day. Partly cloudy skies, continuing afternoon-evening shower/storm chances, and a general warming trend to close out the work week into the weekend, with highs in the 80s Thursday, mid-upper 80s to low-mid 90s thereafter. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 959 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024 VFR conditions for both terminals during the forecast period at this time. Chance for VCTS for both sites from approx 22z-02z(KGLD) and 01z-05z(KMCK). Low confidence at this time they will affect either terminal but will monitor for later updates. Winds for KGLD, south 10-20kts through 22z then becoming southeast 15-30kts. From 05z Monday onward, southerly again around 25-35kts. LLWS 02z-05z Monday 160@45kts and again from 05z onward 180@55kts. Winds for KMCK, east around 10kts through 20z, then southeast around 15-25kts. Around 05z Monday, southerly 15-25kts through 15z, with a turn towards southwest around 20-30kts. LLWS 05z-15z Monday 180@50kts and again from 15z onward 190@45kts. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 955 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Near-record to record high temperatures are expected across portions of the area on Sunday June 16. High temperature records for the date (June 16) are listed below. Location Record (F) Goodland KS 101 in 2021+ McCook NE 107 in 1946 Hill City KS 112 in 1946 Burlington CO 103 in 1952 Colby KS 107 in 1946 Tribune KS 103 in 1946 Yuma CO 98 in 1995 A (+) denotes a record set on multiple years. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JN LONG TERM...CC AVIATION...JN CLIMATE...