Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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610 FXUS63 KGLD 190841 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 241 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Critical fire weather conditions are possible over portions of the area on Friday, mainly along/west of Hwy 25 where breezy southwest winds may develop during the mid-late afternoon. - Showers and thunderstorms will develop over much, or all, of the Tri-State area this weekend as a potent upper level low tracks eastward across the Rockies and Central Plains. Severe thunderstorms and isolated flooding are possible, mainly Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. - Low temperatures in the upper 30s are forecast for eastern Colorado Monday morning. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 200 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Southwest flow aloft will continue through Friday between a trough in the Four Corners region and a ridge over south Texas. It will be dry today and tomorrow with a weak frontal passage tomorrow morning have little weather impacts other than a wind shift. On Friday afternoon, increasing southwest winds and low humidity in northeast Colorado will result in elevated to near critical fire weather conditions. Friday night, a weak wave coming around the southern ridge will result in widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Severe storms are not currently expected due to limited instability, though a few instances of gusty winds cannot be completely ruled out with favorable DCAPE. High temperatures through Friday will be in the mid 80s to lower 90s and lows in the 50s and 60s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 236 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2024 The long-term looks to start off active and become more docile through early next week. Saturday morning, a well organized low pressure system will be near the Four Corners Region, rapidly moving northeast into the High Plains. Throughout Friday night, a moderately strong 850 mb LLJ will set up and move additional moisture into the region. The additional moisture will keep temperatures from cooling off too much Saturday morning, but will limit day time heating. High temperatures are expected to be in the upper 70s to mid 80s across the region, but if the clouds break, expect warmer temperatures. The combination of warm, moist air with the low pressure system (and associated fronts) will increase shower and storm intensity in the late afternoon and evening hours Saturday. Models are fairly consistent with widespread precipitation being expected. Deep layer shear during this event looks to increase the potential for severe weather (~5%), but instability is fairly weak. The heaviest precipitation looks to be focused between 21Z Saturday through 12Z Sunday, with lighter rain linger through Sunday. There is a hydrology section below which goes into more detail about the precipitation. There is also a small (<10%) chance winds ahead of the storms could gust around 35 kts in eastern Colorado producing blowing dust. If there is a clearing of the clouds and the winds are able to pick up, localized blowing dust could occur, otherwise blowing dust is not expected to be a major hazard. As the low moves farther into the CWA, winds will become northwesterly and start cooling off the area. High temperatures on Sunday look to remain largely in the upper 60s, and potentially cooler depending on the efficiency of the CAA. The low pressure system will take until Sunday night to move out of the area, giving the area increased PoPs through Sunday evening. Sunday night, as rising pressure clears out the sky, winds in the southwestern CWA are expected to weaken. The clear skies and weak winds will allow for very efficient cooling, potentially dropping temperatures into the mid 30s by Monday morning. If these ideal cooling conditions can start occurring at sunset, there is about a 15% potential for light, patchy frost to form in the extreme southwestern CWA. If the clouds linger or winds are stronger than forecast, frost will not be an issue. Throughout the CWA Sunday night, Colorado looks to cool below 40 while the rest of the CWA will be in the low to mid 40s; autumn is starting to show up. Once the low moves out, northwesterly flow is expected to dominate the High Plains through the remainder of the period. This will keep high temperatures in the 70s. Overnight, winds look to hover around 5-10 kts, keeping the lows in the 40s to low 50s for the rest of the period. As is typical in northwesterly flow on the High Plains, shortwaves are bound to occur and could bring isolated to scattered showers and storms into the area. Monday through Thursday, no organized systems seem likely, just the potential shortwave showers. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1053 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Not much change. VFR prevailing at both KGLD and KMCK overnight. S winds shifting NW closer towards Thursday morning becoming breezy towards midday with gusts up around 20 kts. Will see those NW winds diminishing into the evening hours. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 236 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2024 An efficient 850mb LLJ is expected to start setting up around 21Z Friday and continue until Sunday morning. This LLJ will provide a moist conveyor belt from the Gulf of Mexico into the High Plains. As mentioned above, an organized low pressure system will move into the region Saturday, creating a moderately strong forcing mechanism to start precipitation. Precipitation looks to start in the eastern CWA Friday evening, intensifying Saturday afternoon, and begin weakening Sunday morning before moving out of the area by Sunday evening. Between 21Z Saturday and 12Z Sunday, nearly the entire Tri-State area will see at least a couple tenths of rain with the potential (~25%) of seeing 2+ inches in that timeframe. If the higher amounts do occur, especially in the eastern CWA, there will be increased flooding concerns. Concerns for flash flooding are low (<10%) with the potential for areal flooding being slightly high at around 20%. Throughout the entire event, locations along and northeast of a line from Oakley, KS to Yuma, CO can expect to see 0.75-1.5 inches of rain, with pockets of 3+ inches being possible. Locations southwest of that line will receive less precipitation, likely in the 0.3-0.75 inches of rain. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...024 LONG TERM...CA AVIATION...024/Sipprell HYDROLOGY...CA