983
FXUS63 KGLD 260350
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
950 PM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near average to slightly above average temperatures and dry
  conditions expected through the upcoming weekend.

- There is the potential for a system to move through at the
  beginning of next week, bringing near to below average
  temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 240 PM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024

A pronounced upper level ridge will shift eastward from the
Rockies to the High Plains (today-tonight), stalling over the
region Thu-Thu night. Expect benign weather characterized by
clear skies, dry conditions and light southerly winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 240 PM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Fri-Sun: Long range guidance continues to indicate that a broad
upper ridge will prevail over the majority of the lower 48 in
this period -- albeit with a cut-off low trapped therein,
meandering invof the Central/Southern MS River Valley where it
will inevitably (and somewhat uniquely) interact with Tropical
Cyclone Helene. As long as the cut-off low remains well
downstream of the Tri-State area (as guidance presently
indicates).. expect benign weather and near average
temperatures.

Monday-ish: Long range guidance indicates cooler temperatures
and breezy north winds assoc/w a dry cold frontal passage
in/around this period. The aforementioned cold front appears to
be synoptically driven, e.g. associated with a progressive
upper trough in the main belt of mid-latitude westerlies over
Canada and the far northern CONUS. In such a pattern, confidence
is relatively high that a cold frontal passage will occur in
the lee of the northern and central Rockies. Whether or not
(and/or to what extent) impactful fire weather will arise will
highly depend upon specific aspects of the frontal passage, e.g.
timing and magnitude, both of which are difficult to confidently
assess at this range.

Tue-Thu: Long range guidance suggests that the main belt of
mid-latitude westerlies will descend from on-high (Canada) to
lesser latitudes (CONUS) in this period, though.. considerable
disagreement persists with regard to the nature of the pattern,
e.g. by 12Z Thu the GFS solution is 180 degrees out of phase
with the ECMWF solution. With the above in mind.. the forecast
will be steered toward climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 950 PM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024

KGLD...VFR conditions will occur through the period. A southerly
wind around 10kts at taf issuance will continue through 16z,
increasing a bit with gusts up to 20kts from 17z-22z. After 23z,
southeast winds up to 11kts veer to the south.

KMCK...VFR conditions will occur through the period. A light and
variable wind at taf issuance will continue through 15z. After
16z, south to southeast winds up to 10kts are expected except in
the 18z-22z timeframe when southerly winds gust to around 20kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Vincent/KAK
AVIATION...99