120
FXUS63 KGLD 282044
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
244 PM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms will develop over portions of the area
  late this afternoon and evening. A few severe storms are
  possible. At this time, brief/localized instances of damaging
  wind appear to be the primary hazard.

- Cooler this weekend with some shower and strong/severe storm
  chances.

- Heat returns Monday with low triple temperatures currently
  forecasted.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 243 PM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Across the region this afternoon, the area is currently seeing
mainly sunny skies with some scattered diurnal clouds north and
southwest. With the passage of a frontal boundary, there is
currently a northerly flow with gusts up to 20 mph at times. as of
200 PM MDT, temperatures are ranging in the 90s.

The main wx concerns in the short term will occur with afternoon/
evening thunderstorms chances, some of which may be strong to severe.

With a strong elongated 500mb ridge over the southern portion
country, as seen from the latest RAP40 guidance, zonal flow is in
place over the central Plains. There is a weak shortwave currently
over the central Rockies that will shift east through this evening.
This system will ride along the aforementioned front at the surface,
with the potential for triggering convection. The latest set of
CAMs(HRRR, RAP, NamNest) are showing scattered storms approaching
the western CWA by 23z-00z. Regional radar is showing some
initiation occurring over central Colorado into the Nebraska
panhandle.

While some storms could initially be severe, the elevated nature of
the expected clouds bases combined with the hot and dry conditions
at the surface ahead of approaching rw/trw, could allow for only a
wind threat. Soundings are showing this with decent inverted-v
profiles and high dcape 1400-1600j/kg as a result. Guidance does
show this dropping sharply as the evening progresses with an
eastward push of any storms. The latest SPC outlook does have the
much of the CWA still under a Slight Risk w/ wind as the main
threat. While large hail could be possible, the drier lower levels
could melt any hail before it hits the ground. We are looking for up
to 65 mph gusts with these storms.

For Saturday, high pressure pushing into the region from the north
will provide the CWA with a dry and slightly cooler day initially.
The front that was the focus for convection today moves south of the
area near the KS/OK border. Another shortwave will pass through the
upper ridge interacting with the front by the late afternoon into
the evening. The focus for any decent storm coverage will occur
along and north of the front to impact our area, basically south of
Highway 40. SPC has a Marginal threat for severe in this region,
with some guidance showing a bit further push northward through the
day, depending on where the actual shortwave sets up. Looking for
chance north of I-70 at 15-30% should enough instability push north.
The main focus will be south, peaking in the 40-50% range over
Greeley/Wichita counties. CAMs continue scattered precip into the
12z Sunday timeframe before ending east.

Going into Sunday, the front to the south will lift north as a warm
front into the western CWA. This combined with another shortwave,
will trigger another round of convection, initially in the west near
the front(20-30%), overspreading the area during the evening(20-40%)
and eventually moving east by 12z Monday. The western CWA is under a
Marginal Risk for severe storms by the afternoon in/near the warm
front. With this front, a return to a southeasterly moist flow will
ensue, with PW values reaching into the 1.4-1.8" range, especially
in KS/NE. Model sounding show decent rainfall potential with very
moist soundings, suggesting a decent rain threat as the activity
moves east in the evening, but hail/wind threats possible in
isolated cells.

For temps, daytime highs this weekend will range in the 80s.
Overnight lows tonight will range widely from the upper 50s west
into the upper 60s east. Weekend lows will range in the upper 50s to
lower 60s Saturday night, with mid to upper 60s expected for Sunday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Both the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF continue to upper level
ridging at 500mb stretched across the southern portion of the
country, amplifying some by the end of next week. This will allow
for W/NW flow aloft giving way to SW flow aloft late in the period.
The passage of several shortwaves along the northern periphery of
the ridge will interact with a surface low and associated front that
will meander through the CWA and eventually settling south of the
CWA. Both sets of guidance are showing a bit different set of
areal coverage for rw/trw, but the overall consensus will be the
chance(20- 40%) for late afternoon precipitation, as the
evening hours will promote higher chances(40-60%) for storms.

As with the past several days, the above normal temps as fueled dry
conditions during the daytime hours, allowing for sunset/evening
convection chances. Can`t rule out some strong to severe cells to
impacts areas, along with some localized heavy rainfall with PW
values 1-1.5" early in the week, with a 1-1.2" range for the latter
portion.

For temps, highs on Monday will range in the upper 90s over
northeast Colorado into the low 100s for locales east of the
Colorado border. For next Tuesday onward, mainly 90s expected each
day, with areas along/west of Highway 27 seeing some mid and upper
80s mix in, especially for northeast Colorado.

With Monday having much of the region seeing at least 100 degrees,
some high heat indices are possible. With the area being dry for
most of the daytime hours, low RH will be present. Areas along/east
of Highway 83, especially Graham and Norton counties could have
enough moisture present to give some readings in the 100-103 range.
West of this, readings will be at/below forecasted highs. Conditions
will be monitored for a potential Heat Advisory issuance if
warranted.

Overnight lows will mainly range in the 60s for most of the periods,
but Monday night could have 70s present for areas along/east of
Highway 83.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1036 AM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024

For KGLD, VFR conditions through the forecast period, with some
VCTS possible from 00z-03z Saturday. Winds, northwest 10-15kts
becoming northeast by 00z. A period of a few hours back to the
northwest 5-10kts then from 13z onward northeast 15-25kts.

For KMCK, VFR conditions through the forecast period, with some
VCTS possible from 01z-04z Saturday. Winds, meandering from
northwest to the northeast 5-15kts. A period of light/variable
is expected from 04z-09z Saturday.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JN