602
FXUS63 KGLD 231238
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
638 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight chance of sprinkles and light showers tonight into
  Tuesday morning.

- Near average temperatures and dry conditions forecast for the
  upcoming week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 405 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Through the day today, a 500mb ridge from the southwest will be
keeping the sky clear today as temperatures warm into the mid to
upper 70s. Winds will be light and southerly for most of the day,
until the afternoon when a very weak surface low will cause winds in
the eastern CWA to become northerly. By 0Z, the low will have
dissipated and southerly winds will be returning.

Around 3Z Tuesday a trough, with an associated surface cold front,
starts moving into the northern parts of the area that could bring
in some sprinkles or light showers. This trough is extending from a
low pressure system moving southeast across the Northern Plains into
Missouri. The additional cloud cover will keep overnight
temperatures near 50. The sprinkles are most likely to occur near a
line from Hill City, KS to Trenton, NE between 6Z and 18Z. These
sprinkles are not expected to amount to measurable precipitation.

By Wednesday 0Z, we will be seeing northerly flow throughout the
column with the low to our east and a developing high to the west.
This pattern will continue through Wednesday and Wednesday night.
This will clear out the sky again, allowing temperatures Tuesday and
Wednesday night to cool into the lower to mid 40s. Day time heating
will capitalize on the clear skies, with Tuesday warming into the
mid to upper 70s with Wednesday warming to near 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 343 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

As we move into the latter half of the week, a giant ridge extending
across the Central to SW portions of North America in a semi-omega
pattern. Both the GFS and ECMWF favor cut-off or closed lows
developing on the southern ends of upper troughs that will pinch the
side of the ridge closer over the Rockies and Great Plains. This
pattern will unfortunately lead to dry conditions most likely
through early next week. There is a cutoff system that sets up over
the lower Mississippi River Valley. This system does meander and
retrograde some late in the week. The ECMWF shows the best potential
for some increased moisture to work towards the eastern CWA, but the
overall trend keeps this east of the area.

Temperatures throughout the long term are expected to be slightly
above average for the highs and lows. High temperatures have been
fluctuating between the mid 70s to lower 80s each day. Overnight
lows could be in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 507 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

VFR conditions will prevail for both KGLD and KMCK through the
period. Light and variable winds are also expected to last
through the period, with winds from the north starting to
increase around 12Z tomorrow. There is a slight chance
(~10-15%) KMCK could see some light showers after 6Z, but no
impacts are expected.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...KMK
AVIATION...CA