897
FXUS63 KGLD 252155
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
355 PM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near average to slightly above average temperatures and dry
  conditions expected through the upcoming weekend.

- There is the potential for a system to move through at the
  beginning of next week, bringing near to below average
  temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 240 PM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024

A pronounced upper level ridge will shift eastward from the
Rockies to the High Plains (today-tonight), stalling over the
region Thu-Thu night. Expect benign weather characterized by
clear skies, dry conditions and light southerly winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 240 PM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Fri-Sun: Long range guidance continues to indicate that a broad
upper ridge will prevail over the majority of the lower 48 in
this period -- albeit with a cut-off low trapped therein,
meandering invof the Central/Southern MS River Valley where it
will inevitably (and somewhat uniquely) interact with Tropical
Cyclone Helene. As long as the cut-off low remains well
downstream of the Tri-State area (as guidance presently
indicates).. expect benign weather and near average
temperatures.

Monday-ish: Long range guidance indicates cooler temperatures
and breezy north winds assoc/w a dry cold frontal passage
in/around this period. The aforementioned cold front appears to
be synoptically driven, e.g. associated with a progressive
upper trough in the main belt of mid-latitude westerlies over
Canada and the far northern CONUS. In such a pattern, confidence
is relatively high that a cold frontal passage will occur in
the lee of the northern and central Rockies. Whether or not
(and/or to what extent) impactful fire weather will arise will
highly depend upon specific aspects of the frontal passage, e.g.
timing and magnitude, both of which are difficult to confidently
assess at this range.

Tue-Thu: Long range guidance suggests that the main belt of
mid-latitude westerlies will descend from on-high (Canada) to
lesser latitudes (CONUS) in this period, though.. considerable
disagreement persists with regard to the nature of the pattern,
e.g. by 12Z Thu the GFS solution is 180 degrees out of phase
with the ECMWF solution. With the above in mind.. the forecast
will be steered toward climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 355 PM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024

KGLD...VFR conditions will occur through the taf period. A
southeast wind up to 10kts at taf issuance will veer to the
south at similar speeds from 07z-16z. From 17z-22z, southerly
winds gusting 20kts or so are expected. After 23z, southeast
winds fall below 12kts.

KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A light
and variable wind at taf issuance will continue through 15z.
From 16z-17z, southerly winds up to 10kts are forecast. From
18z-22z, southerly winds gusting 20kts or so are expected. After
23z, southeast winds around 10kts are forecast.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Vincent/KAK
AVIATION...99