071
FXUS63 KGLD 221956
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
156 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Sunday through Tuesday will be hot! Highs in the upper 90s up
  to 105 are forecast. Heat indices will be fairly similar to
  air temperatures during this time.

- Chances for storms each day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 152 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

We currently have a 250mb high pressure system over Texas and a low
pressure system in central Canada. These two features have created
generally zonal flow through the Great Plains, which looks to remain
over the next few days. In the lower levels, we can expect the flow
to become southerly this evening. This air is expected to have a
little moisture content that will slowly lower dewpoints through the
period. These feature will contribute to low PoPs. This afternoon
and evening, far northwestern Yuma county may see a few sprinkles as
decaying showers from northern Colorado may (~20% confidence) reach
the CWA before falling completely apart.

Overnight tonight, we will remain mostly clear and winds will be
fairly light from the south-southwest. A few CAMs were showing some
fog moving into the eastern CWA tonight, but due to the SSW flow,
confidence for fog formation is less than 10%.

Tomorrow, we will see the southerly winds pick up to around 15 kts
and gusts up to 25 kts from the SSW. This will help a dryline form
fairly early in the day. Also, at 500mb, a weak shortwave looks to
start impacting the CWA around 18-21Z. These two features may set
off some scattered storms in the early afternoon. Best time for
convection will be between 20-01Z. A similar setup looks to occur on
Monday afternoon, too.

Temperatures tomorrow and Monday are of concern as temperatures will
warm to over 100 for most of the CWA. Monday will be the hotter day,
but heat indices east of highway 25 look to be over 100 both days,
with some westward expansion on Monday. Be prepared for a very hot
stretch of weather! Overnight temperatures will drop into the mid
60s to low 70s Sunday and Monday night.

There are some elevated fire weather concerns for Monday afternoon
in the western CWA. RH values lower into the upper teens and winds
look to gust up around 15 kts. No where near critical fire weather
conditions, but it is worth keeping an eye on any fires.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 113 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

For the long term period, relatively hot conditions are forecast to
continue with increased chances for storms going into the end of the
work week and the weekend.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, hot temperatures in the mid 90`s to mid
100`s remain forecast with an upper level ridge axis forecast to
move through the area. While the current forecast has Wednesday a
bit cooler than Tuesday, this may change as ensemble guidance
suggests that the ridge may amplify a bit more which would help pull
in warmer temperatures into the area. An upper trough may slide
through the Northern Plains and help keep low pressure near the area
which would help provide some lift for storms and potentially swing
winds to out of the southeast. Storm chances either day are
currently forecast to be fairly limited and would likely form over
the higher terrain in Colorado and push east, especially with enough
moisture return.

For Thursday through Saturday, an upper trough over the Northwestern
CONUS is forecast to begin making its way across the Northern
Rockies and Plains. This is forecast to deamplify the ridging over
the area to more zonal flow, with southwesterly flow possible if the
trough amplifies enough. This is forecast to cool the area slightly
into the 90`s and low 100`s depending on how quickly the next trough
moves near. If it delays more towards the beginning of the weekend,
Thursday would likely be in the 100`s with lesser chances for
storms. Skies would generally be clear except for any PM storms and
lingering cloud cover the next morning.

For storms through the time period, severe weather would be
possible, but chances are currently forecast to be low each day. The
overall weak flow should keep effective shear below 30 kts and CAPE
is generally forecast to be below 2000 J/KG. Would likely be more
pulse severe storms except for the end of the week whenever the
surface low pressure and cold front move through.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1125 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Winds
will become northeasterly this afternoon and evening, and weaken.
By sunrise, winds will be southerly and be picking back up
speed. Some models are suggesting light fog near KMCK around
12Z, but confidence is less than 5% flight conditions will be
impacted.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 302 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

With hot conditions expected over the area Sunday and especially
into Monday, with highs at least 100F area-wide, there could be some
locales coming within a few degrees of at least tying the daily
record(s). The records for Sunday, June 23rd and Monday, June 24th
listed below are for comparison to the expected forecast each day.
Despite the region seeing triple digit heat, most locales are still
below records.



                      Sunday, 6/23           Monday, 6/24


Goodland KS           106F in 2012+          109F in 2012

Burlington CO         106F in 1954           107F in 1954

Hill City KS          111F in 2012           114F in 2012

McCook NE             106F in 2012+          107F in 1943

Colby KS              105F in 1943           107F in 2012

Tribune KS            105F in 1954           109F in 2012

Yuma CO               107F in 1954           103F in 2002

A (+) denotes a multiple year record

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...CA
CLIMATE...JN