Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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734 FXUS63 KGLD 231701 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1101 AM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Sunday through Tuesday will be hot! Highs in the upper 90s up to 105 are forecast. Heat indices will be fairly similar to air temperatures today and Tuesday. Monday will be higher prompting a Heat Advisory. - Chances for storms each day. - Elevated fire weather conditions for portions of the area today through Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 342 AM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Across the region this morning, mostly clear to clear skies are present with an area of high pressure moving through. Temperatures as of 300 AM MDT are ranging in the mid 50s to the mid 60s, with winds southerly over the western CWA, and light/variable east due to the proximity of the ridge. Weather concerns in the short term period will focus on the hot temperatures and resulting heat indices, chances for rw/trw today and Monday, some which may be strong to severe. Also elevated fire weather concerns for portions of the region. The latest RAP40 500mb analysis is currently showing amplified ridging into the Rockies, providing NW flow aloft over the Tri State area. The latest runs of the GFS/NAM show this amplified ridge broadening and shifting eastward into the Plains for Monday and Tuesday. At the surface, current area of high pressure that is providing a decent overnight, will shift east during the day today as a broad trough settles into the eastern Rockies. this will set up a southerly flow area-wide. On Monday, this trough remains through the day, but moves off the Front Range late as a front, settling in the CWA and eventually south of the area by the evening hours. This boundary clears the CWA giving way to another broad low Tuesday, with high pressure north of the area pushing south. What this means for the area`s weather: Sunday/Sunday night, the combination of the NW flow aloft and the southerly surface winds, will continue hot(850 temps +28c to +33c) and above normal conditions area-wide. There will be a weak shortwave moving through the area later today that could trigger convection(15-30%). Enough instability will be present to warrant a Marginal Risk for severe from the SPC later today into the evening hours. Main threat is wind should any storms occur as soundings do show high DCape values around 00z Monday near 1600-1700j/kg. Monday/Monday night, with the trough shifting east late in the day as a front, and interacting with another weak shortwave, the area will see chances(15-30%) for storms late. With some instability present, a small Marginal Risk area is present in SW Nebraska. The other issue through the day will be the continuance of the oppressive heat. With the upper ridge extending into the Plains and a persistent southerly surface flow, hot wx persists(850 temps +31c to +36c). With somewhat more RH present in the east, have opted for a Heat Advisory with readings 100-105 expected. This will be for most areas along/east of Highway 25 in NW Kansas, and all of SW Nebraska. Tuesday/Tuesday night, mainly dry wx expected, but yet another hot day on tap(850 temps +29c to +34c), as broad upper ridge remains intact. Surface winds do shift northerly. While Monday is the most prevalent day for high heat indices to affect the public, areas along/east of Highway 83 today and Tuesday will need to be monitored. Also, with the hot and dry conditions expected, areas along and west of Highway 27 could see elevated fire wx conditions. Please refer to the Fire Wx section below. For temps, hot above normal highs will persist during the short term period. Highs today will range from the upper 90s west into the low 100s east. Going into Monday, even hotter with low to mid 100s expected. Slightly cooler Tuesday with a return to a range from the upper 90s to low 100s. Please refer to the Climate section below for record high information. With the expected hot temperatures, heat indices during the afternoon hours will also make an impact area-wide. Sunday`s and Tuesday`s numbers will stay fairly close to forecasted highs, but it will be Monday`s readings that will be most impactful. Readings of 100-105 expected have allowed for the issuance of a Heat Advisory for a good portion of the region. Highest reading today and Tuesday will be focused on locales east of Highway 25, especially around the Highway 83 region. Overnight lows tonight and Monday night will range from the mid 60s west into the lower 70s east. By Tuesday night, a range in the 60s is expected. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Overview: An upper level ridge.. extending northward from the Desert Southwest to the 4-Corners and central Rockies (Wed- Thu).. will flatten and regress southward to the Desert Southwest/Southern Plains (Thu-Fri), as an upper level low moving ashore the Pacific NW progresses eastward to the Dakotas and an associated trough /cyclonic flow aloft/ progresses eastward across the Intermountain West and Rockies. In the wake of the progressive upper wave.. long range guidance indicates that a west-east elongated ridge will amplify over the southern CONUS (Sat-Sun). Above average temperatures are likely to persist throughout the extended forecast period. Wed: Precipitation chances /convective development/ will highly depend upon the evolution of the ridge. 00Z 06/23 operational ECMWF guidance continues to indicate that the magnitude, position and orientation of the ridge will be such that (1) synoptic subsidence may largely suppress diurnal convective development along the Colorado Front Range/Palmer Divide and (2) that low-level forcing/moisture may be insufficient for in-sits convective development on adjacent portions of the High Plains (i.e. northwest KS). 00Z 06/23 operational GFS guidance, on the other hand, continues to indicate a less pronounced, ridge.. with the mid-latitude westerlies (northwesterlies, in this case) in closer proximity to the Tri-State area.. a somewhat more favorable pattern for convective development. Thu-Fri: While 00Z ECMWF/GFS operational guidance indicate that synoptic forcing assoc/w the progressive upper wave will largely be focused over the Northern Plains (Dakotas-Nebraska), the presence of cyclonic flow aloft, in of itself, suggests an above average potential for convection. Sat-Sun: With an amplifying, west-east elongated ridge over the southern CONUS.. above average temperatures and below average precipitation chances are presently expected. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1055 AM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024 VFR conditions will persist through the period. Gusty winds today will weaken after sunset, but the south-southwesterly winds will continue. There is a slight chance (about 15%) that some pop-up storms will develop this afternoon, which could cause some variable winds from the outflows. There is about a 10% chance that KMCK could see very weak LLWS near 9-12Z at 200 ft AGL, but speed differences look to only be around 15kts at best. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 342 AM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024 With hot conditions expected over the area today and especially into Monday, with highs at least 100F area-wide, there could be some locales coming within a few degrees of at least tying the daily record(s). The records for Sunday, June 23rd and Monday, June 24th listed below are for comparison to the expected forecast each day. Despite the region seeing triple digit heat, most locales are still below records. Sunday, 6/23 Monday, 6/24 Goodland KS 106F in 2012+ 109F in 2012 Burlington CO 106F in 1954 107F in 1954 Hill City KS 111F in 2012 114F in 2012 McCook NE 106F in 2012+ 107F in 1943 Colby KS 105F in 1943 107F in 2012 Tribune KS 105F in 1954 109F in 2012 Yuma CO 107F in 1954 103F in 2002 A (+) denotes a multiple year record && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ002>004- 014>016-029. CO...None. NE...Heat Advisory from noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ to 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ Monday for NEZ079>081. && $$ SHORT TERM...JN LONG TERM...BV AVIATION...CA CLIMATE...JN