575
FXUS63 KGLD 270909
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
309 AM MDT Fri Sep 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average temperatures and dry conditions will prevail
  through the upcoming weekend.

- Near critical to briefly critical fire weather conditions are
  possible along and west of the Colorado border Saturday
  through Monday afternoons.

- Near to below average temperatures expected in the wake of a
  dry cold frontal passage early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 307 AM MDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Today we will get to see a pattern transition over the Great Plains
as an upper trough moves over the Rockies and across the region.
This trough is expected to push the ridge south as it moves
southeast to interact with our "no-rain providing system" from last
weekend and Hurricane Helene over the eastern CONUS. This
interaction will lead to the upper trough lingering over the Tri-
State area through Saturday while the ridge builds back up over the
Rockies. Near the surface a broad area of high pressure will
strengthen over the Colorado Rockies into the Black Hills, keeping
the area dry.

Temperatures will be above normal in the 80s to lower 90s the
next two days. There is some concern for near critical to
briefly critical fire weather conditions Saturday afternoon
along and west of the Colorado border as RH values fall below
20% and south to southeast winds gust to 20 mph. Overnight lows
will likely be in the upper 40s to lower 50s each night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM MDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Sun-Tue: Long range guidance continues to indicate a pattern
transition early next week -- a transition manifesting (to the
senses) in the form of a dry cold frontal passage on Monday.
The aforementioned cold front appears to be synoptically driven,
e.g. associated with a progressive upper trough in the main
belt of mid-latitude westerlies over Canada and the far northern
CONUS. In such a pattern, confidence is relatively high that a
cold frontal passage will occur in the lee of the northern and
central Rockies. Whether or not (and/or to what extent)
impactful fire weather may arise will highly depend upon
specific aspects of the frontal passage, e.g. timing and
magnitude, both of which are difficult to confidently assess at
this range. Regardless, a cooler airmass will be delivered to
the region sometime Mon-Mon night.. supplanting above-average
temperatures with near-average temperatures.

Wed-Fri: Long range guidance suggests a somewhat more active
(progressive/amplified) pattern may evolve by mid-late next
week.. as the main belt of mid-latitude westerlies descend from
on-high (Canada) to lesser latitudes (northern CONUS). In such a
pattern, sensible weather conditions.. temperatures and wind
speed/direction, in particular.. may vary considerably from day-
to-day.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 940 PM MDT Thu Sep 26 2024

KGLD...VFR conditions will occur through the period. A southerly
wind up to 11kts at taf issuance will veer to the northwest
through sunrise Friday morning. Northwesterly to northeasterly
winds are forecast through the day with speeds up to 11kts with
an occasional gust. After 03z, winds become light and variable.

KMCK...VFR conditions will occur through the period. A light and
variable wind at taf issuance will continue through 19z,
becoming northeasterly at speeds under 10kts from 20z through
the rest of the taf period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...99