Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
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359 FXUS63 KGRR 270520 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 120 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Fair weather and cooler into Friday - Showers and storms Late Friday into Saturday - Warmer mid week next week with showers/storms && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 - Fair weather and cooler into Friday A large Surface to mid level level ridge is situated over the mid west including the Ohio valley. That system will keep dry air entrenched over the region tonight through tomorrow and into Friday. Weak upper level flow will keep northerly winds through this timeframe. Max temperatures will be around 5 to 10 degrees below normal. - Showers and storms Late Friday into Saturday The ridging that will be bringing the nice weather to the area for the first couple of days will give way to a couple of short waves that will bring the next chance of rain to the area as early as later Friday afternoon. The rain chances Friday afternoon and evening will be on the lighter side, and not widespread. The first short wave won`t have a lot of moisture with it coming off a couple of dry days and a lack of strong Gulf moisture advecting in. The best chance per model ensemble means and looking at individual members will be late Friday night and Saturday morning. This will be the result of another stronger short wave moving in, and a bit better moisture to work with. Both of these systems look like they will have little to no chance of severe weather. This is due to the limited moisture with the first wave, and bad timing for instability with the second. Once the second short wave moves through Saturday, the sufficient moisture will be swept out of the area. This will essentially end rain chances. There does look to be another short wave come through Sunday. A lack of moisture, and more broad scale subsidence building in will likely keep it dry through Monday. The air will be a bit cooler however with lower heights/troughing moving in for a couple of days. - Warmer mid week next week with showers/storms We will see the upper ridge early next week shift east of the area by Tuesday. A decent longer wave upper trough will emerge from the Pacific NW into the Upper Midwest. What this will do is setup a deeper SW flow aloft and at the sfc, to bring in warmer temperatures and increasingly more humid air Tuesday/Wednesday. Larger scale lift with the long wave trough, and some short waves embedded in the trough will start increasing the rain chances over the area beginning on Tuesday and lasting into Wednesday. The instability will build sufficiently to provide for storms at times. Timing of the individual short waves with respect to the time of day will facilitate whether severe weather chances will be present. The flow is such that it will try to help any storms that develop to try and organize. We will continue to fine tune this portion of the forecast. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 119 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 VFR conditions will continue through Thursday with northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 333 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Currently winds and waves are under performing however there are some gusts getting into the 15 to 20kt range. Latest models show winds and waves will build through the afternoon and evening so will keep Will keep the beach hazards statement and the SCY in place for now. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NJJ/Ceru AVIATION...Ostuno MARINE...Ceru