808
FXUS63 KGRR 231733
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
133 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry Today

- Showers ending Tuesday night, then dry through Friday

- Low chance of rain during the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

- Dry Today

High pressure fills in on the backside of the system low that
brought much needed rainfall yesterday. Expect dry conditons
today with temperatures in the 70s. Another round of showers looks
likely Tuesday morning to Wednesday morning as a surface low
associated with an upper shortwave tracks through Lower Michigan.

- Showers ending Tuesday night, then dry through Friday

The high amplitude upper trough and associated surface low will be
moving northeast across the cwa Tuesday night. We`ll see highest
PoPs Tuesday evening as the low moves across the cwa. However, once
the low moves into northern Lower, the precipitation will end
quickly.

The upper trough is progd to be sheared off Wednesday with a cutoff
low meandering over the ArkLaTex area and a ridge building into the
Great Lakes from the west. That will produce dry and sunny
conditions Wednesday through Friday. Above normal temperatures in
the mid to upper 70s are anticipated; dewpoints in the 50s will make
for comfortable conditions.

- Low chance of rain during the weekend

An interesting setup is developing for the weekend. Models are
showing a sizable hurricane in the Gulf moving north toward the FL
panhandle and getting caught up in the upper level circulation of the
meandering ArkLaTex upper low. That essentially pushes what`s left
of the tropical system north through the TN and OH Valleys. There`s
still a lot of uncertainty to this situation and although the models
show much of the precipitation falling well south of Michigan, some
may sneak north into the southern cwa.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 133 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Stratus with origins from Lake Huron with the flow from the NE has
been over most of the terminals since this morning after clouds
had briefly cleared out. This stratus is eroding at the edges from
the North and is lifting elsewhere. We do expect conditions to
improve gradually through sunset, with the eastern sites likely
keeping the clouds in, even if they go VFR.

Overnight, clouds will thicken up again where they are able to
clear out. A few rain showers will become possible after 06-08z,
with more widespread showers moving in after that. Low clouds and
mist with also move in across the area bringing conditions down to
LIFR-VLIFR. Once these conditions move in late tonight/Tuesday
morning, it will likely stick around for the remainder of this
forecast period through 18z Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 313 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Wind and waves will diminish through this morning at which point the
SCA and Beach Hazards will expire. Once waves diminish, offshore
winds today will keep marine conditions quiet. Waves may subtly
spike Tuesday to 1 to 2 feet, but don`t anticipate any marine
headlines at the moment. Few showers with embedded thunderstorms may
be possible Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...04/Thielke
AVIATION...NJJ
MARINE...Thielke