Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
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394 FXUS63 KGRR 230555 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 155 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain moves out tonight - Rain chances Tuesday into Wednesday - Break in precip late work week, wet into next week && .UPDATE... Issued at 940 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 We will continue the theme of decreasing POPs for the remainder of the night. Radar, observational and model trends support this scenario. With the north to northeast flow increasing considerably over the lakeshore the past few hours, waves have built quickly. Ludington was reporting wave heights up to around 7 feet. We will therefore maintain the hazardous conditions for the nearshore waters and lakeshore zones for small craft and swimmers. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 337 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 - Rain moves out tonight Low pressure is currently centered just southwest of GRR according to surface obs and radar. The low is moving east and will take the steadier rain with it the next few hours. The chance for showers will linger through the evening until a secondary cold front with a push of drier air moves through overnight. Astronomically speaking, summer ended this morning but it also looks to have ended meteorologically with temperatures closer to long term averages the next couple days. That means lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s and highs in the lower 70s. - Rain chances through Wednesday A building ridge over the east coast will allow a trough situated over the central Plains to deepen. This pattern will then set up for a shortwave to swing through the region Tuesday into Wednesday. PWATS of 1 to 1.5 inches should aid the mid level low to bring more precipitation to the region Tuesday. As the trough swings to the northeast precipitation will fade Tuesday night into early Wednesday. - Break in precip late work week, wet into next week While there continues to be some differences in the mid to long range models the trends continue to show agreement on position and passage of the large 500mb trough over the central United states Thursday through the weekend. The consensus is that a positively tilted ridge of high pressure will build over the Great lakes bringing more warm and dry weather over Michigan, though temperatures should remain in the upper 70s, which is still around 10 degrees above normal. The before mentioned low that will be meandering through the central Plains this week is progged to make its way to the northwest which could bring the region showers early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 148 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 IFR/MVFR was noted at most TAF sites although MKG/AZO were VFR. The clearing line extends from near CAD southwest to Whitehall and this will slowly move southeast during the overnight and early morning. Ceilings will improve later this morning as drier air works into the region with VFR expected by noon. && .MARINE... Issued at 337 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 No changes to the SCA. Winds and waves will decrease later Monday but could spike up again by late Tuesday. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 11 AM EDT this morning for MIZ037- 043-050-056-064-071. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LMZ844>849. && $$ UPDATE...MJS DISCUSSION...Ostuno/Ceru AVIATION...04 MARINE...Ostuno