094
FXUS63 KGRR 171100
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
700 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and warm weather continues through midweek

- Slight chances for rain late this week into next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

- Dry and warm weather continues through midweek

Ridging at the sfc/aloft will continue to dominate the wx pattern
through midweek bringing mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and
warm temps. High temps today will be a bit cooler than yesterday
as h8 temps cool a bit to around 13 C. This in conjunction with
ample sun will result in high temps reaching the low to mid 80s
today.

Mins tonight will be mostly in the 50s with potential for some
patchy shallow ground fog again during the early morning hours
Wednesday. High temps Wednesday will once again reach the low to
mid 80s as we continue to have rather large diurnal temp swings
with a relatively dry airmass in place.

- Slight chances for rain late this week into next week

The influence of the blocking high may begin to weaken and translate
east later in the week, allowing some jet streaks and upper-level
troughs or lows to move closer to our region. Per ensembles, the
earliest chance of measurable rain may be Friday, though this is
only a slight chance given so few solutions producing rain. The cold
front that will approach Michigan, associated with a Dakota-Manitoba
low, is likely to get washed out. There is a little better chance of
rain around Sunday, which more EC ensembles are clustering toward as
a more robust northern stream low moves over the Upper Midwest.
However, southern stream ridging from Texas to the Great Lakes at
that time does complicate the picture.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 700 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Patchy mist/fog is reducing visibilities to MVFR/IFR in parts of
central and south-central Lower Michigan, including JXN. This
should quickly clear out with sunshine. High confidence in VFR
with CLR skies and light winds mainly from the east. MKG`s wind
direction may become NW after 18 Z as the lake breeze develops.
JXN is a candidate to drop vis to MVFR again in the pre-dawn
hours of Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Sfc ridging will continue to result in light winds in the 5 to 10
kt range which will become onshore in the afternoon and early
evening daily. Wave heights will remain aob 1 ft through midweek.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laurens/CAS
AVIATION...CAS
MARINE...Laurens