713
FXUS63 KGRR 231127
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
727 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry Today

- Showers ending Tuesday night, then dry through Friday

- Low chance of rain during the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

- Dry Today

High pressure fills in on the backside of the system low that
brought much needed rainfall yesterday. Expect dry conditons
today with temperatures in the 70s. Another round of showers looks
likely Tuesday morning to Wednesday morning as a surface low
associated with an upper shortwave tracks through Lower Michigan.

- Showers ending Tuesday night, then dry through Friday

The high amplitude upper trough and associated surface low will be
moving northeast across the cwa Tuesday night. We`ll see highest
PoPs Tuesday evening as the low moves across the cwa. However, once
the low moves into northern Lower, the precipitation will end
quickly.

The upper trough is progd to be sheared off Wednesday with a cutoff
low meandering over the ArkLaTex area and a ridge building into the
Great Lakes from the west. That will produce dry and sunny
conditions Wednesday through Friday. Above normal temperatures in
the mid to upper 70s are anticipated; dewpoints in the 50s will make
for comfortable conditions.

- Low chance of rain during the weekend

An interesting setup is developing for the weekend. Models are
showing a sizable hurricane in the Gulf moving north toward the FL
panhandle and getting caught up in the upper level circulation of the
meandering ArkLaTex upper low. That essentially pushes what`s left
of the tropical system north through the TN and OH Valleys. There`s
still a lot of uncertainty to this situation and although the models
show much of the precipitation falling well south of Michigan, some
may sneak north into the southern cwa.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 725 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Latest IR loop shows low clouds are clearing out of the region
from north to south and that trend is reflected in the TAFs. Look
for the terminals to become VFR this morning.

MVFR and IFR cigs will move back in after 06z tonight as low
pressure moves in from the southwest.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 313 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Wind and waves will diminish through this morning at which point the
SCA and Beach Hazards will expire. Once waves diminish, offshore
winds today will keep marine conditions quiet. Waves may subtly
spike Tuesday to 1 to 2 feet, but don`t anticipate any marine
headlines at the moment. Few showers with embedded thunderstorms may
be possible Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 11 AM EDT this morning for MIZ037-
     043-050-056-064-071.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...04/Thielke
AVIATION...04
MARINE...Thielke